The paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for a comparative evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies taking into account different local perspectives (expert and stakeholder opinions). Of note, a novel approach is taken using a multiple-criteria formulation that is methodologically adapted to tackle various conflicting criteria and a large number of expert/stakeholder groups involved in the decision-making process. The purpose is to develop a framework and to show its application to qualitative comparison and ranking of options in a hypothetical case of three waste management alternatives: interim storage at and/or away from the reactor site for the next 100 years, interim decay storage followed in midterm by disposal in a national repository, and disposal in a multinational repository. Additionally, major aspects of a decision-making aid are identified and discussed in separate paper sections dedicated to application context, decision supporting process, in particular problem structuring, objective hierarchy, performance evaluation modeling, sensitivity/robustness analyses, and interpretation of results (practical impact). The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the application of the MCDA framework developed to a generic hypothetical case and indicate how MCDA could support a decision on nuclear waste management policies in a “small” newcomer country embarking on nuclear technology in the future.
This paper summarizes the experience gained in the application of multi-criteria decision making and uncertainty treatment methods to a comparative assessment of nuclear energy systems and related nuclear fuel cycles. These judgment measures provide a means for comprehensive evaluation according to different conflicting criteria, such as costs, benefits and risks, which are inevitably associated with the deployment of advanced technologies. Major findings and recommendations elaborated in international and national projects and studies are reviewed and discussed. A careful analysis is performed for multi-criteria comparative assessment of nuclear energy systems and nuclear fuel cycles on the basis of various evaluation and screening results. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lessons learned, to share the identified solutions, and indicate promising future directions.
This paper presents first results of the INPRO Collaborative Project on Key Indicators for Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems, which has the objective to develop guidance and tools for comparative evaluation of the status, prospects, benefits, and risks associated with development of innovative nuclear technologies for a more distant future. Presented results illustrate expedience of application of the multicriteria decision analysis methods, which are able to provide the added value to comparative assessment of nuclear energy systems. First, the paper presents a short review of the multicriteria decision analysis methods appropriate to support judgment aggregation within comparative evaluations of nuclear energy systems based on key indicators and highlights the methodology to perform such assessments. Second, a set of key indicators elaborated in the INPRO Collaborative Project on Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle (GAINS) were evaluated for comparative evaluation of nuclear energy system evolution scenarios. Third, a numerical example is presented of application of the selected key indicators, methods, and tools for judgment aggregation in comparative assessment of the GAINS nuclear energy systems.
Is it true that a nuclear technology approach to generate electric energy offers a clean, safe, reliable and affordable, i.e., sustainable option? In principle yes, however a technology impact on the environment strongly depends on the actual implementation bearing residual risks due to technical failures, human factors, or natural catastrophes. A full response is thus difficult and can be given first when the wicked multi-disciplinary issues get well formulated and “resolved”. These problems are lying at the interface between: the necessary R&D effort, the industrial deployment and the technology impact in view of the environmental sustainability including the management of produced hazardous waste. As such, this problem is clearly of multi-dimensional nature. This enormous complexity indicates that just a description of the problem might cause a dilemma. The paper proposes a novel holistic approach applying Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to assess the potential of nuclear energy systems with respect to a sustainable performance. It shows how to establish a multi-level criteria structure tree and examines the trading-off techniques for scoring and ranking of options. The presented framework allows multi-criteria and multi-group treatment. The methodology can be applied to support any pre-decisional process launched in a country to find the best nuclear and/or non-nuclear option according to national preferences and priorities. The approach addresses major aspects of the environmental footprint of nuclear energy systems. As a case study, advanced nuclear fuel cycles are analyzed, which were previously investigated by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA/OECD) expert group WASTEMAN. Sustainability facets of waste management, resource utilization and economics are in focus.
The work presents the approaches and software developed for multi-objective optimization of nuclear power structures: the modules for energy planning package MESSAGE intended for modeling purposes of developing nuclear power systems and multi-objective evaluation of its effectiveness and an integrated approach based on the method of system dynamics and parameter space investigation, allowing the problem of optimizing a nuclear power system structure in multi-objective formulation to be solved. Some results of implementation of these tools for multi-objective optimization of nuclear power structures are shown.