Insufficient chilling resulting from rising winter temperatures associated with climate warming has been an area of particular interest in boreal and temperate regions where a period of cool temperatures in fall and winter is required to break plant dormancy. In this study, we examined the budburst and growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud.) seedlings subjected to typical northern Ontario, Canada, spring conditions in climate chambers after different exposures to natural chilling. Results indicate that chilling requirements (cumulative weighted chilling hours) differed substantially among the 7 species, ranging from 300 to 500 hours for spruce seedlings to more than 1100 hours for trembling aspen and lodgepole pine. Only spruce seedlings had fulfilled their chilling requirements before December 31 whereas the other species continued chilling well into March and April. Species with lower chilling requirements needed more heat accumulation for budburst and vice versa. Insufficient chilling delayed budburst but only extremely restricted chilling hours (<400) resulted in abnormal budburst and growth, including reduced needle and shoot expansion early budburst in lower crowns, and erratic budburst on lower stems and roots. Effects, however, depended on both the species’ chilling requirements and the chilling–heat relationship. Among the 7 tree species examined, trembling aspen is most likely to be affected by reduced chilling accumulation possible under future climate scenarios, followed by balsam poplar, white birch, lodgepole pine, and jack pine. Black and white spruce are least likely to be affected by changes in chilling hours.

The growth response and mortality of trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) were monitored 1, 3, 5, and 11 years after partially harvesting an aspen-dominated mature mixedwood stand in northeastern Ontario. Both diameter and height of aspen trees responded positively to harvesting. However, 3 years after harvest, the growth rates of residual aspen were severely suppressed by 3 years of moderate to severe defoliation by forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hbn.). The diameter growth of surviving trees almost recovered, but due to continuous crown dieback in the 6 years after defoliation ceased, height growth did not. Over the 11 years after harvest, 70% of residual aspen died, with 80% of that mortality occurring in the 6 years after defoliation. Trees in the lower canopy and in the partial cut had higher mortality rates than those in the upper canopy and in the uncut control. Increased mortality at the individual tree level was generally associated with greater foliage loss. Aspen growth and mortality were associated with defoliation levels, particularly for trees in partial cut treatments. Partial cutting and crown class strongly influenced the response of aspen trees to insect defoliation and should be considered when selecting residual trees during harvesting.

Plant species that start early in spring are generally more responsive to rising temperatures, raising concerns that climate warming may favour early season species and result in altered interspecific interactions and community structure and composition. This hypothesis is based on changes in spring phenology and therefore active growing season length, which would not be indicative of possible changes in growth as would changes in cumulative forcing temperatures (growing degree days/hours) in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study we analysed the effects of a moderate climate warming (2°C warmer than the 1981–2010 baseline) on the leaf-out of hypothetical species without chilling restriction and actual plant species with different chilling and forcing requirements in different parts of the globe. In both cases, early season species had larger phenological shifts due to low leaf-out temperatures, but accumulated fewer forcing gains (changes in cumulative forcing temperatures by warming) from those shifts because of their early spring phenology. Leaf-out time was closely associated with leaf-out temperatures and therefore plant phenological responses to climate warming. All plant species would be equally affected by climate warming in terms of total forcing gains added from higher temperatures when forcing gains occurring between early and late season species are included. Our findings will improve the understanding of possible mechanisms and consequences of differential responses in plant phenology to climate warming.