Improving the detection efficiency and maintenance benefits is one of the greatest challenges in road testing and maintenance. To address this problem, this paper presents a method for combining the you only look once (YOLO) series with 3D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) images to recognize the internal defects in asphalt pavement and compares the effectiveness of traditional detection and GPR detection by evaluating the maintenance benefits. First, traditional detection is conducted to survey and summarize the surface conditions of tested roads, which are missing the internal information. Therefore, GPR detection is implemented to acquire the images of concealed defects. Then, the YOLOv5 model with the most even performance of the six selected models is applied to achieve the rapid identification of road defects. Finally, the benefits evaluation of maintenance programs based on these two detection methods is conducted from economic and environmental perspectives. The results demonstrate that the economic scores are improved and the maintenance cost is reduced by $49,398/km based on GPR detection; the energy consumption and carbon emissions are reduced by 792,106 MJ/km (16.94%) and 56,289 kg/km (16.91%), respectively, all of which indicates the effectiveness of 3D GPR in pavement detection and maintenance.

To realize the intelligent and accurate measurement of pavement surface potholes, an improved You Only Look Once version three (YOLOv3) object detection model combining data augmentation and structure optimization is proposed in this study. First, color adjustment was used to enhance the image contrast, and data augmentation was performed through geometric transformation. Pothole categories were subdivided into P1 and P2 on the basis of whether or not there was water. Then, the Residual Network (ResNet101) and complete IoU (CIoU) loss were used to optimize the structure of the YOLOv3 model, and the K-Means++ algorithm was used to cluster and modify the multiscale anchor sizes. Lastly, the robustness of the proposed model was assessed by generating adversarial examples. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model was significantly improved compared with the original YOLOv3 model; the detection mean average precision (mAP) was 89.3%, and the F1-score was 86.5%. On the attacked testing dataset, the overall mAP value reached 81.2% (−8.1%), which shows that this proposed model performed well on samples after random occlusion and adding noise interference, proving good robustness.

Accurate and reliable modeling of pavement deterioration is critical for effective infrastructure management. This study proposes a probabilistic machine learning framework using Bayesian-optimized Natural Gradient Boosting (BO-NGBoost) to predict the International Roughness Index (IRI) of asphalt pavements in cold climates. A dataset only for cold regions was constructed from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database, integrating multiple variables related to climate, structure, materials, traffic, and constructions. The BO-NGBoost model was evaluated against conventional deterministic models, including artificial neural networks, random forest, and XGBoost. Results show that BO-NGBoost achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R² = 0.897, RMSE = 0.184, MAE = 0.107) while also providing uncertainty quantification for risk-based maintenance planning. BO-NGBoost effectively captures long-term deterioration trends and reflects increasing uncertainty with pavement age. SHAP analysis reveals that initial IRI, pavement age, layer thicknesses, and precipitation are key factors, with freeze–thaw cycles and moisture infiltration driving faster degradation in cold climates. This research contributes a scalable and interpretable framework that advances pavement deterioration modeling from deterministic to probabilistic paradigms and provides practical value for more uncertainty-aware infrastructure decision-making.