Objective: To project future trajectories of the gastric cancer (GC) burden in China under different scenarios of GC prevention and identify strategies to improve affordability and cost-effectiveness. Design: Using a cohort of Chinese men and women born during 1951–1980, we assumed that different prevention strategies were conducted, including eradication of Helicobacter pylori (Hp) and endoscopy screening (one-time, annual, biennial, triennial or stratified according to personal risk). We performed a literature search to identify up-to-date data and populate a Markov model to project the number of new GC cases and deaths during 2021–2035, as well as resource requirements and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We examined the impacts of general (among the whole population) and targeted (high-risk population) prevention. Results: During 2021–2035, 10.0 million new GC cases and 5.6 million GC deaths would occur, with 7.6%–35.5% and 6.9%–44.5%, respectively, being avoidable through various prevention strategies. Relative to the status quo, Hp eradication was a cost-saving strategy. General annual screening dominated other screening strategies, but cost more than CNY 70 000 per QALY gained (willingness-to-pay) compared with Hp eradication. Among endoscopy strategies, targeted screening resulted in 44%–49% lower cost per QALY gained over the status quo than general screening. Among high-risk population, tailoring the screening frequency according to personal risk could reduce endoscopy-related resources by 22% compared with biennial screening and by 55% compared with annual screening, Conclusion: Our findings provide important input for future decision-making and investment, highlighting the need and feasibility for China to include GC prevention in its national health plans.

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke are leading causes of death worldwide. Although extensively studied, previous research has predominantly addressed these two diseases in isolation. Comorbidity research faces challenges both at the patient level and in terms of study methods. We aimed to characterise the global co-occurrence pattern of IHD and ischaemic stroke from a spatial perspective and to identify the corresponding risk factors of the comorbidity. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database, we extracted incidence rates of IHD and ischaemic stroke and exposure rates of the 68 most detailed risk factors among individuals aged 25 years or older from 203 countries and territories. Based on the four quartiles of global incidence rates for both diseases, we proposed the comorbidity's co-occurrence patterns and classified the 203 countries or territories into three distinct regions (consistent, IHD-dominant, and ischaemic stroke-dominant areas). We used machine learning and negative binomial regression to screen and quantify the effects of corresponding risk factors and computed the population-attributable fraction and composite risk index to evaluate the global disease burden of IHD and ischaemic stroke. 89 countries were classified as consistent, 59 as IHD-dominant, and 55 as ischaemic stroke-dominant. The spatial distribution of the three co-occurrence patterns overlapped with exposure to environmental, dietary, and behavioural risk factors. Nine risk factors were identified and functionally classified into common and specific features. Most countries are simultaneously exposed to the combined effects of multiple risk factors. Overall, 45·43% of IHD incidence and 38·53% of ischaemic stroke incidence is attributable to cumulative exposure to the respective risk factors, with specific combinations and variations of these factors greatly influencing the global disparities and patterns of incidence. The comorbidity of IHD and ischaemic stroke is a pervasive global health issue. Intervening corresponding modifiable risk factors can fundamentally reduce the global burden of these diseases. National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding.

To estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand. We developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017-2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects, China statistical yearbook 2016, China's report on blood safety and records from a large tertiary hospital. Our main assumptions were stable age-specific per capita blood supply and demand over time. We estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200 mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2 million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥ 1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18-34 years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage. Multidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China's ageing population.

Background: Cancer has become a global health problem, and assessments of cancer mortality are important for effective public health policy‐making and adequate resource allocation. In this study, we aimed to predict the mortality rates and numbers of deaths related to four common cancers (lung, liver, stomach, and esophagus) in China from 2020 to 2030 and to estimate the corresponding cancer burden caused by population aging and tobacco smoking. Methods: Cancer mortality data (2004–2017) were extracted from China's death surveillance datasets, and China's population figures (2020–2030) were obtained from the United Nations population projections. Smoking prevalence data were retrieved from a World Health Organization global report, and relative risks of smoking and cancers were derived from large‐scale Asian studies. We predicted the deaths related to the four major cancers and age‐standardized mortality rates using joinpoint regression and linear regression models. The tobacco smoking‐related burden of these four major cancers was estimated using the population attributable fraction. Results: Unlike lung cancer mortality which was predicted to continue to increase, the age‐standardized mortality rates for digestive cancers (liver, stomach, and esophageal cancers) are predicted to decline over the next decade. The number of deaths caused by the four major cancers is predicted to increase from 1,490,304 in 2020 to 1,823,960 in 2030. The age‐specific mortality rates of the four major cancers are predicted to increase with age after 40–45 years, peaking in the age groups of 80–84 and ≥85 years. In 2030, the combined number of deaths from the four examined cancers among adults aged ≥65 years is predicted to be 1,167,153, accounting for 64% of all deaths from these cancers. Tobacco smoking is predicted to contribute to nearly 29% of deaths from these cancers, corresponding to 527,577 deaths. Conclusions: The overall trend in the combined total mortality from four major cancers is predicted to decline over the next decade; however, the corresponding death toll is expected to surge, in the context of China's population aging and high smoking prevalence. These estimates provide data‐driven evidence for China to implement effective cancer control measures in the future.

Humans can be exposed to multiple pollutants in the air and surface water. These environments are non-static, trans-boundary and correlated, creating a complex network, and significant challenges for research on environmental hazards, especially in real-world cancer research. This article reports on a large study (377 million people in 30 provinces of China) that evaluated the combined impact of air and surface water pollution on cancer. We formulate a spatial evaluation system and a common grading scale for co-pollution measurement, and validate assumptions that air and surface water environments are spatially connected and that cancers of different types tend to cluster in areas where these environments are poorer. We observe “dose–response” relationships in both the number of affected cancer types and the cancer incidence with an increase in degree of co-pollution. We estimate that 62,847 (7.4%) new cases of cancer registered in China in 2016 were attributable to air and surface water pollution, and the majority (69.7%) of these excess cases occurred in areas with the highest level of co-pollution. The findings clearly show that the environment cannot be considered as a set of separate entities. They also support the development of policies for cooperative environmental governance and disease prevention.

Background China is experiencing a postpeak smoking epidemic with accelerating population ageing. Understanding the impacts of these factors on the future cancer burden has widespread implications. Methods We developed predictive models to estimate smoking-related cancer deaths among men and women aged ≥35 years in China during 2020–2040. Data sources for model parameters included the United Nations World Population Prospects, China Death Surveillance Database, national adult tobacco surveys and the largest national survey of smoking and all causes of death to date. The main assumptions included stable sex-specific and age-specific cancer mortality rates and carcinogenic risks of smoking over time. Results In a base-case scenario of continuing trends in current smoking prevalence (men: 57.4%–50.5%; women: 2.6%–2.1% during 2002–2018), the smoking-related cancer mortality rate with population ageing during 2020–2040 would rise by 44.0% (from 337.2/100 000 to 485.6/100 000) among men and 52.8% (from 157.3/100 000 to 240.4/100 000) among women; over 20 years, there would be 8.6 million excess deaths (0.5 million more considering former smoking), and a total of 117.3 million smoking-attributable years of life lost (110.3 million (94.0%) in men; 54.1 million (46.1%) in working-age (35–64 years) adults). An inflection point may occur in 2030 if smoking prevalence were reduced to 20% (Healthy China 2030 goal), and 1.4 million deaths would be averted relative to the base-case scenario if the trend were maintained through 2040. Conclusions Coordinated efforts are urgently needed to curtail a rising tide of cancer deaths in China, with intensified tobacco control being key.