The Delphi technique is a commonly applied method for (among the various uses) achieving consensus from a group of knowledgeable experts. This approach is frequently employed to generate and prioritize ideas, identify potential solutions, and make decisions in various contexts through a series of iterative rounds. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the Delphi method is regularly used in combination with the scenario method to explore different futures, implementing strategies in the present with the aim of averting dystopian outcomes and/or facilitating normative scenarios. Nevertheless, assuming that the convergence of opinions can also occur in spatial contexts, a shortcoming of the method is the deficiency of spatial references useful in the planning process. In this paper, we introduce the Real‐Time Geo‐Spatial Consensus System, a novel web‐based open platform useful to develop Delphi‐based Spatial Scenarios (DBSS), in an interactive and innovative interface. The platform adopts the Real‐Time spatial Delphi technique to obtain a spatial convergence of opinions among experts to offer researchers, decision‐makers, policymakers, and local authorities a new tool for complex spatial decisions. The primary innovations of the platform, including its architecture, statistical algorithms, tools, features, and outcomes, are demonstrated through a preliminary application focused on potential future climatic hazards in Dublin, Ireland.
The Real-Time Spatial Delphi represents an innovative method tailored to navigate the complexities of uncertain spatial issues. Adopted in Future Studies contexts, this method excels in developing spatial scenarios and leveraging the collaborative insights of experts within a virtual environment to achieve a consensus regarding territorial dynamics. However, while this method yields invaluable spatial insights and statistical metrics, the final outputs often remain confined to expert circles due to their technical complexity. In addition, the outcomes often lack direct policy implications, as they primarily provide an expansive overview of potential future scenarios. In response to these challenges, this paper proposes integrating text-to-image models and generative pre-trained transformers, into the Real-Time Spatial Delphi process. By adopting these advanced tools during the visioning and planning phases, the method endeavors to transform spatial judgments into visually immersive scenarios, while concurrently crafting actionable policy recommendations suitable for evaluation. To validate the approach, we present a case study in the environmental context, for the cities of Cork, Galway, and Limerick, located in Ireland. Through this application, we contribute to Futures Studies by illustrating the method’s capacity to envision plausible futures in the form of real images, considering the formulation of policies to support decision-making.
28 October 2024 in Research in Transportation Economics