Transgenic crops producing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins are used worldwide to control major pests of corn and cotton. Development of strategies to delay the evolution of pest resistance to Bt crops requires an understanding of factors affecting responses to natural selection, which include variation in survival on Bt crops, heritability of resistance, and fitness advantages associated with resistance mutations. The two main strategies adopted for delaying resistance are the refuge and pyramid strategies. Both can reduce heritability of resistance, but pyramids can also delay resistance by reducing genetic variation for resistance. Seasonal declines in the concentration of Bt toxins in transgenic cultivars, however, can increase the heritability of resistance. The fitness advantages associated with resistance mutations can be reduced by agronomic practices, including increasing refuge size, manipulating refuges to increase fitness costs, and manipulating Bt cultivars to reduce fitness of resistant individuals. Manipulating costs and fitness of resistant individuals on transgenic insecticidal crops may be especially important for thwarting evolution of resistance in haplodiploid and parthenogenetic pests. Field‐evolved resistance to Bt crops in only five pests during the last 14 years suggests that the refuge strategy has successfully delayed resistance, but the accumulation of resistant pests could accelerate.

Despite the potentially profound impact of genetically modified crops on agriculture and the environment, we know little about their long-term effects. Transgenic crops that produce toxins fromBacillus thuringiensis(Bt) to control insects are grown widely, but rapid evolution of resistance by pests could nullify their benefits. Here, we present theoretical analyses showing that long-term suppression of pest populations is governed by interactions among reproductive rate, dispersal propensity, and regional abundance of a Bt crop. Supporting this theory, a 10-year study in 15 regions across Arizona shows that Bt cotton suppressed a major pest, pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella), independent of demographic effects of weather and variation among regions. Pink bollworm population density declined only in regions where Bt cotton was abundant. Such long-term suppression has not been observed with insecticide sprays, showing that transgenic crops open new avenues for pest control. The debate about putative benefits of Bt crops has focused primarily on short-term decreases in insecticide use. The present findings suggest that long-term regional pest suppression after deployment of Bt crops may also contribute to reducing the need for insecticide sprays.

Crops genetically engineered to produce insecticidal proteins from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have improved pest management and reduced reliance on insecticide sprays. However, evolution of practical resistance by some pests has reduced the efficacy of Bt crops. We analyzed global resistance monitoring data for 24 pest species based on the first 25 yr of cultivation of Bt crops including corn, cotton, soybean, and sugarcane. Each of the 73 cases examined represents the response of one pest species in one country to one Bt toxin produced by one or more Bt crops. The cases of practical resistance rose from 3 in 2005 to 26 in 2020. Practical resistance has been documented in some populations of 11 pest species (nine lepidopterans and two coleopterans), collectively affecting nine widely used crystalline (Cry) Bt toxins in seven countries. Conversely, 30 cases reflect no decrease in susceptibility to Bt crops in populations of 16 pest species in 10 countries. The remaining 17 cases provide early warnings of resistance, which entail genetically based decreases in susceptibility without evidence of reduced field efficacy. The early warnings involve four Cry toxins and the Bt vegetative insecticidal protein Vip3Aa. Factors expected to favor sustained susceptibility include abundant refuges of non-Bt host plants, recessive inheritance of resistance, low resistance allele frequency, fitness costs, incomplete resistance, and redundant killing by multi-toxin Bt crops. Also, sufficiently abundant refuges can overcome some unfavorable conditions for other factors. These insights may help to increase the sustainability of current and future transgenic insecticidal crops.

The refuge–high–dose strategy for delaying insect adaptation to transgenic plants produces non–transgenic plants that enable survival of susceptible individuals. Previous theoretical work has suggested three requirements for success of the refuge–high–dose strategy: a low initial frequency of the resistance allele, extensive mating between resistant and susceptible adults and recessive inheritance of resistance. In order to understand an observed decrease in resistance frequency and improve the potential for managing resistance better, we used analytical and simulation models for exploring the conditions that prevent or reverse the evolution of resistance, even when resistance is not rare initially. Assuming random mating and recessive or nearly recessive inheritance of resistance, the factors favouring reversal of resistance are non–recessive costs of resistance, low initial resistance allele frequency, large refuges, incomplete resistance and density–independent population growth in refuges.

Higher yields and reduced pesticide impacts are needed to mitigate the effects of agricultural intensification. A 2-year farm-scale evaluation of 81 commercial fields in Arizona show that use of transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton reduced insecticide use, whereas transgenic cotton with Bt protein and herbicide resistance (BtHr) did not affect herbicide use. Transgenic cotton had higher yield than nontransgenic cotton for any given number of insecticide applications. However, nontransgenic, Bt and BtHr cotton had similar yields overall, largely because higher insecticide use with nontransgenic cotton improved control of key pests. Unlike Bt and BtHr cotton, insecticides reduced the diversity of nontarget insects. Several other agronomic and ecological factors also affected biodiversity. Nevertheless, pairwise comparisons of diversity of nontarget insects in cotton fields with diversity in adjacent noncultivated sites revealed similar effects of cultivation of transgenic and nontransgenic cotton on biodiversity. The results indicate that impacts of agricultural intensification can be reduced when replacement of broad-spectrum insecticides by narrow-spectrum Bt crops does not reduce control of pests not affected by Bt crops.