Widespread soil contamination is hazardous to agricultural products, posing harmful effects on human health through the food chain. In China, Cadmium (Cd) is the primary contaminant in soils and easily accumulates in rice, the main food for the Chinese population. Therefore, it is essential to derive soil criteria to safeguard rice products by assessing Cd intake risk through the soil–grain–human pathway. Based on a 2-year field investigation, a total of 328 soil–rice grain paired samples were collected in China, covering a wide variation in soil Cd concentrations and physicochemical properties. Two probabilistic methods used to derive soil criteria are soil–plant transfer models (SPT), with predictive intervals, and species sensitivity distribution (SSD), composed of soil type-specific bioconcentration factor (BCF, Cd concentration ratio in rice grain to soil). The soil criteria were back-calculated from the Chinese food quality standard. The results suggested that field data with a proper Cd concentration gradient could increase the model accuracy in the soil–plant transfer system. The derived soil criteria based on soil pH were 0.06–0.11, 0.33–0.59, and 1.51–2.82 mg kg⁻¹ for protecting 95%, 50% and 5% of the rice safety, respectively. The soil criteria with soil pH further validated the soil as being safe for rice grains.