Accurately predicting sea surface temperature (SST) is practically important to many applications, such as weather forecasting, ocean environment protection, and marine disaster prevention. The major challenge for predicting SST is to capture both the spatial and temporal characteristics of SST, which has not yet been well addressed by the existing methods. In this work, we proposed a novel dense dilated convolutional LSTM (D2CL) model to predict SST. D2CL first integrates dilated convolutional network and LSTM to learn spatial and temporal features from the SST data simultaneously. Then, it uses multiple feature extractors of different dilated kernel sizes to learn features of varying scales. Finally, it introduces dense connection to reduce feature loss during the training process and achieves SST prediction in an encoder–decoder style. We have conducted extensive experiments over two real datasets to validate the effectiveness of D2CL and all the proposed enhancing techniques. As suggested by the experimental results, D2CL outperforms the existing methods and could achieve accurate SST prediction for as long as seven days in future.

Satellite data is of high importance for ocean environment monitoring and protection. However, due to the missing values in satellite data, caused by various force majeure factors such as cloud cover, bad weather and sensor failure, the quality of satellite data is reduced greatly, which hinders the applications of satellite data in practice. Therefore, a variety of methods have been proposed to conduct missing data imputation for satellite data to improve its quality. However, these methods cannot well learn the short-term temporal dependence and dynamic spatial dependence in satellite data, resulting in bad imputation performance when the data missing rate is large. To address this issue, we propose the Spatio-Temporal Attention Generative Adversarial Network (STA-GAN) for missing value imputation in satellite data. First, we develop the Spatio-Temporal Attention (STA) mechanism based on Graph Attention Network (GAT) to learn features for capturing both short-term temporal dependence and dynamic spatial dependence in satellite data. Then, the learned features from STA are fused to enrich the spatio-temporal information for training the generator and discriminator of STA-GAN. Finally, we use the generated imputation data by the trained generator of STA-GAN to fill the missing values in satellite data. Experimental results on real datasets show that STA-GAN largely outperforms the baseline data imputation methods, especially for filling satellite data with large missing rates.

Emerging on-demand transport services, such as Uber and GoGoVan, usually face the dilemma of demand supply imbalance, meaning that the spatial distributions of orders and drivers are imbalanced. Due to such imbalance, much supply resource is wasted while a considerable amount of order demand cannot be met in time. To address this dilemma, knowing the unmet demand in the near future is of high importance for service providers because they can dispatch their vehicles in advance to alleviate the impending demand supply imbalance, we develop a general framework for predicting the unmet demand in future time slots. Under this framework, we first evaluate the predictability of unmet demand in on-demand transport services and find that unmet demand is highly predictable. Then, we extract both static and dynamic urban features relevant to unmet demand from data sets in multiple domains. Finally, multiple prediction models are trained to predict unmet demand by using the extracted features. As demonstrated via experiments, the proposed framework can predict unmet demand in on-demand transport services effectively and flexibly.

Temporal causal discovery is a crucial task aimed at uncovering the causal relations within time series data. The latest temporal causal discovery methods usually train deep learning models on prediction tasks to uncover the causality between time series. They capture causal relations by analyzing the parameters of some components of the trained models, e.g., attention weights and convolution weights. However, this is an incomplete mapping process from the model parameters to the causality and fails to investigate the other components, e.g., fully connected layers and activation functions, that are also significant for causal discovery. To facilitate the utilization of the whole deep learning models in temporal causal discovery, we proposed an interpretable transformer-based causal discovery model termed CausalFormer, which consists of the causality-aware transformer and the decomposition-based causality detector. The causality-aware transformer learns the causal representation of time series data using a prediction task with the designed multi-kernel causal convolution which aggregates each input time series along the temporal dimension under the temporal priority constraint. Then, the decomposition-based causality detector interprets the global structure of the trained causality-aware transformer with the proposed regression relevance propagation to identify potential causal relations and finally construct the causal graph. Experiments on synthetic, simulated, and real datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of CausalFormer on discovering temporal causality.

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one critical parameter of global climate change, and accurate SST prediction is important to various applications, e.g., weather forecasting, fishing directions, and disaster warnings. The global ocean system is unified and complex, and the SST patterns in different oceanic regions are highly diverse and correlated. However, existing data-driven SST prediction methods mainly consider the local patterns within a certain oceanic region, e.g., El Nino region and the Black sea. It is challenging but necessary to model the global SST correlations rather than that in a specific region to enhance the prediction accuracy of SST. In this work, we proposed a new method called Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network (HiGRN) to address the issue. First, to learn the dynamic and diverse local SST patterns of specific locations, we design an adaptive node embedding with self-learned parameters to learn various SST patterns. Then we develop a hierarchical cluster generator to aggregate the locations with similar patterns into regional clusters and utilize a graph convolution network to learn the spatial correlations among these clusters. Finally, we introduce a multi-level attention mechanism to fuse the local patterns and regional correlations, and the output is fed into a recurrent network to achieve SST predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that our method largely outperforms the state-of-the-art SST prediction methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/Neoyanghc/HiGRN .

Recurrent incidents of economically motivated adulteration have long-lasting and devastating effects on public health, economy, and society. With the current food authentication methods being target-oriented, the lack of an effective methodology to detect unencountered adulterants can lead to the next melamine-like outbreak. In this study, an ensemble machine-learning model that can help detect unprecedented adulteration without looking for specific substances, that is, in a non-targeted approach, is proposed. Using raw milk as an example, the proposed model achieved an accuracy and F1 score of 0.9924 and 0. 0.9913, respectively, when the same type of adulterants was presented in the training data. Cross-validation with spiked contaminants not routinely tested in the food industry and blinded from the training data provided an F1 score of 0.8657. This is the first study that demonstrates the feasibility of non-targeted detection with no a priori knowledge of the presence of certain adulterants using data from standard industrial testing as input. By uncovering discriminative profiling patterns, the ensemble machine-learning model can monitor and flag suspicious samples; this technique can potentially be extended to other food commodities and thus become an important contributor to public food safety.