An important problem in filtering for linear systems with Markovian switching coefficients (dynamic multiple model systems) is the management of hypotheses, which is necessary to limit the computational requirements. A novel approach to hypotheses merging is presented for this problem. The novelty lies in the timing of hypotheses merging. When applied to the problem of filtering for a linear system with Markovian coefficients, the method is an elegant way to derive the interacting-multiple-model (IMM) algorithm. Evaluation of the IMM algorithm shows that it performs well at a relatively low computational load. These results imply a significant change in the state of the art of approximate Bayesian filtering for systems with Markovian coefficients.

Two maneuvering-target tracking techniques are compared. The first, called input estimation, models the maneuver as constant unknown input, estimates its magnitude and onset time, and then corrects the state estimate accordingly. The second models the maneuver as a switching of the target state model, where the various state models can be of different dimension and driven by process noises of different intensities, and estimates the state according to the interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm. While the first requires around twenty parallel filters, it is shown that the latter, implemented in the form of the IMM, performs equally well or better with two or three filters.

For the problem of tracking multiple targets, the joint probabilistic data association (JPDA) approach has shown to be very effective in handling clutter and missed detections. The JPDA, however, tends to coalesce neighboring tracks and ignores the coupling between those tracks. Fitzgerald (1990) has shown that hypothesis pruning may be an effective way to prevent track coalescence. Unfortunately, this process leads to an undesired sensitivity to clutter and missed detections, and it does not support any coupling. To improve this situation, the paper follows a novel approach to combine the advantages of JPDA coupling, and hypothesis pruning into new algorithms. First, the problem of multiple target tracking is embedded into one filtering for a linear descriptor system with stochastic coefficients. Next, for this descriptor system, the exact Bayesian and new JPDA filters are derived. Finally, through Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that these new PDA filters are able to handle coupling and are insensitive to track coalescence, clutter, and missed detections.

Complexity science is the multidisciplinary study of complex systems. Its marked network orientation lends itself well to transport contexts. Key features of complexity science are introduced and defined, with a specific focus on the application to air traffic management. An overview of complex network theory is presented, with examples of its corresponding metrics and multiple scales. Complexity science is starting to make important contributions to performance assessment and system design: selected, applied air traffic management case studies are explored. The important contexts of uncertainty, resil- ience and emergent behaviour are discussed, with future research priorities summarised

The standard way of applying particle filtering to stochastic hybrid systems is to make use of hybrid particles, where each particle consists of two components, one assuming Euclidean values, and the other assuming discrete mode values. This paper develops a novel particle filter (PF) for a discrete-time stochastic hybrid system. The novelty lies in the use of the exact Bayesian equations for the conditional mode probabilities given the observations. Therefore particles are needed for the Euclidean valued state component only. The novel particle filter is referred to as the interacting multiple model (IMM) particle filter (IMMPF) because it incorporates a filter step which is of the same form as the interaction step of the IMM algorithm. Through Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that the IMMPF has significant advantage over the standard PF, in particular for situations where conditional switching rate or conditional mode probabilities have small values