Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We used a Cox regression analysis, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height. During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 14,723 participants died. The lowest risks of death related to BMI were observed at a BMI of 25.3 for men and 24.3 for women. After adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were strongly associated with the risk of death. Relative risks among men and women in the highest quintile of waist circumference were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 2.33) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.56 to 2.04), respectively, and in the highest quintile of waist-to-hip ratio, the relative risks were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.84) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66), respectively. BMI remained significantly associated with the risk of death in models that included waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (P<0.001). These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.

The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure¹. The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion^2,3. However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)^4,5,6,7,8. Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention.

To further dissect the genetic architecture of colorectal cancer (CRC), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 1,439 cases and 720 controls, imputed discovered sequence variants and Haplotype Reference Consortium panel variants into genome-wide association study data, and tested for association in 34,869 cases and 29,051 controls. Findings were followed up in an additional 23,262 cases and 38,296 controls. We discovered a strongly protective 0.3% frequency variant signal at CHD1. In a combined meta-analysis of 125,478 individuals, we identified 40 new independent signals at P < 5 × 10-8, bringing the number of known independent signals for CRC to ~100. New signals implicate lower-frequency variants, Krüppel-like factors, Hedgehog signaling, Hippo-YAP signaling, long noncoding RNAs and somatic drivers, and support a role for immune function. Heritability analyses suggest that CRC risk is highly polygenic, and larger, more comprehensive studies enabling rare variant analysis will improve understanding of biology underlying this risk and influence personalized screening strategies and drug development.

Purpose: An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of ovarian cancer is important for improving prevention, early detection, and therapeutic approaches. We evaluated 14 hormonal, reproductive, and lifestyle factors by histologic subtype in the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium (OC3). Patients and Methods: Among 1.3 million women from 21 studies, 5,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified (3,378 serous, 606 endometrioid, 331 mucinous, 269 clear cell, 1,000 other). By using competing-risks Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by study and birth year and adjusted for age, parity, and oral contraceptive use, we assessed associations for all invasive cancers by histology. Heterogeneity was evaluated by likelihood ratio test. Results: Most risk factors exhibited significant heterogeneity by histology. Higher parity was most strongly associated with endometrioid (relative risk [RR] per birth, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.83) and clear cell (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.76) carcinomas (P value for heterogeneity [P-het] < .001). Similarly, age at menopause, endometriosis, and tubal ligation were only associated with endometrioid and clear cell tumors (P-het ≤ .01). Family history of breast cancer (P-het = .008) had modest heterogeneity. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of mucinous (RR per 20 pack-years, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.46) but a decreased risk of clear cell (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) tumors (P-het = .004). Unsupervised clustering by risk factors separated endometrioid, clear cell, and low-grade serous carcinomas from high-grade serous and mucinous carcinomas. Conclusion: The heterogeneous associations of risk factors with ovarian cancer subtypes emphasize the importance of conducting etiologic studies by ovarian cancer subtypes. Most established risk factors were more strongly associated with nonserous carcinomas, which demonstrate challenges for risk prediction of serous cancers, the most fatal subtype.

Background: Body weight and body mass index (BMI) are positively related to risk of colon cancer in men, whereas weak or no associations exist in women. This discrepancy may be related to differences in fat distribution between sexes or to the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in women. Methods: We used multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between anthropometric measures and risks of colon and rectal cancer among 368 277 men and women who were free of cancer at baseline from nine countries of the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: During 6.1 years of follow-up, we identified 984 and 586 patients with colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Body weight and BMI were statistically significantly associated with colon cancer risk in men (highest versus lowest quintile of BMI, relative risk [RR] = 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12 to 2.15; P_trend = .006) but not in women. In contrast, comparisons of the highest to the lowest quintile showed that several anthropometric measures, including waist circumference (men, RR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.93; P_trend = .001; women, RR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.08 to 2.03; P_trend = .008), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; men, RR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.15; P_trend = .006; women, RR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.05; P_trend = .002), and height (men, RR = 1.40, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.98; P_trend = .04; women, RR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.30 to 2.46; P_trend <.001) were related to colon cancer risk in both sexes. The estimated absolute risk of developing colon cancer within 5 years was 203 and 131 cases per 100 000 men and 129 and 86 cases per 100 000 women in the highest and lowest quintiles of WHR, respectively. Upon further stratification, no association of waist circumference and WHR with risk of colon cancer was observed among postmenopausal women who used HRT. None of the anthropometric measures was statistically significantly related to rectal cancer. Conclusions: Waist circumference and WHR, indicators of abdominal obesity, were strongly associated with colon cancer risk in men and women in this population. The association of abdominal obesity with colon cancer risk may vary depending on HRT use in postmenopausal women; however, these findings require confirmation in future studies.

Objective: Examine the relationship between antibodies to 25 oral bacteria and pancreatic cancer risk in a prospective cohort study. Design: We measured antibodies to oral bacteria in prediagnosis blood samples from 405 pancreatic cancer cases and 416 matched controls, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Analyses were conducted using conditional logistic regression and additionally adjusted for smoking status and body mass index. Results: Individuals with high levels of antibodies against Porphyromonas gingivalis ATTC 53978, a pathogenic periodontal bacteria, had a twofold higher risk of pancreatic cancer than individuals with lower levels of these antibodies (OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.05 to 4.36; >200 ng/ml vs ≤200 ng/ml). To explore the association with commensal (non-pathogenic) oral bacteria, we performed a cluster analysis and identified two groups of individuals, based on their antibody profiles. A cluster with overall higher levels of antibodies had a 45% lower risk of pancreatic cancer than a cluster with overall lower levels of antibodies (OR 0.55; 95% CI 0.36 to 0.83). Conclusions: Periodontal disease might increase the risk for pancreatic cancer. Moreover, increased levels of antibodies against specific commensal oral bacteria, which can inhibit growth of pathogenic bacteria, might reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer. Studies are needed to determine whether oral bacteria have direct effects on pancreatic cancer pathogenesis or serve as markers of the immune response.