Significance: The incidental catch of threatened species is still one of the main barriers to fisheries sustainability. What would happen if we closed 30% of the ocean to fishing with the goal of reducing bycatch? Analyzing 15 different fisheries around the globe, we found that under static area management, such as classic no-take marine area closures, observed bycatch could be reduced by 16%. However, under dynamic ocean management based on observed bycatch and closing the same total area but fragmented in smaller areas that can move year to year, that reduction can increase up to 57% at minimal or no loss of target catch.

We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical structure of state-space surplus production models that accommodate multiple catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of various fisheries exploiting the same stock. The advantage of this approach in data-limited stock assessment is the possibility of borrowing strength among different data sources to estimate reference points useful for management decisions. The model is applied to thirteen years of data from seven fisheries of the lebranche mullet (Mugil liza) southern population, distributed along the southern and southeastern shelf regions of Brazil. The results indicate that this modelling strategy is useful and has room for extensions. There are reasons for concern about the sustainability of the mullet stock, although the wide posterior credibility intervals for key reference points preclude conclusive statistical evidence at this time

Temperatures in the southwest South Atlantic Ocean have increased over recent decades due to changes in Brazil's Current dynamics affecting marine ecosystems. However, the effects of ocean warming on demersal fauna in the region are poorly understood. Here, we analyse megafauna species composition, and changes in biomass of species with warm- and cold-water affinities for 29,021 commercial demersal catches landed in the harbours of Santa Catarina state, Brazil, between 2000 and 2019. We find evidence of megafauna tropicalization in the Brazilian Meridional Margin during this period. The mean temperature of catches has increased sharply since 2013, with the averaged optimal temperature preferences of all species in commercial catches in one year increasing at a rate of 0.41 °C yr⁻¹. These changes in the mean temperature of the catch correlate well with model-based bottom water temperatures (with 0 and 1-year time-lag) and transport volumes of the Brazil Current (with 3 and 4-year time-lag).

Ocean warming is leading to a tropicalization of fisheries in subtropical regions around the world. Here, we scrutinize pelagic fisheries catch data from 1978 to 2018 in the South Atlantic Ocean in search of signs of tropicalization in these highly migratory and top-of-the-food-chain fish. Through the analysis of catch composition data, thermal preferences, and climatic data, we described the temporal variability in the mean temperature of the catch and assessed the role of sea surface temperature and the Brazil Current’s transport volumes as drivers of such variability. We observed a significant increase in the mean temperature of the catches, indicating a transition towards a predominance of warm-water species, especially pronounced on the western side of the South Atlantic Ocean. This shift was further corroborated by a significant rise in the proportion of warm-water species over time. Additionally, this study observes a continuous increase in SST during the entire time series on both sides of the South Atlantic Ocean, with significant positive trends. The analysis of catch composition through ordination methods and estimates of beta diversity reveals a transition from an early scenario characterized by mostly cold-water species to a late scenario, dominated by a greater diversity of species with a prevalence of warm-water affinities. These findings underscore the profound impact of ocean warming on marine biodiversity, with significant implications for fisheries management and ecosystem services.

The large pelagic species play an important role in transferring energy in vast distant marine ecoregions. Results obtained report on extraordinary findings of important commercial species in southeast–south Brazilian waters, including the Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii and the Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis, an endemic species from the Pacific Ocean. These specimens were identified within the genomic description of 10 individuals randomly selected from the catch to evaluate the catch composition of pelagic longline fisheries off Brazilian waters. Most of the records were from T. maccoyii (6), followed by the Bigeye tuna T. obesus (2), Yellowfin tuna T. albacares (1), and T. orientalis (1). Yellowfin and Bigeye tuna are expected to be captured in the vicinity of the longline fishing areas. However, the unlikely presence of the cold-water T. maccoyii and the warm-water T. orientalis suggests a long migration from common species ranges that could be influenced by climate change. These results imply a readjustment of spatial management structures for these species.