Based on a consensus conference of experts in the evolution and ecology of cancer, this article proposes a framework for classifying tumours that includes four evolutionary and ecological processes: neoplastic cell diversity and changes over time in that diversity, hazards to cell survival and available resources. Neoplasms change over time through a process of cell-level evolution, driven by genetic and epigenetic alterations. However, the ecology of the microenvironment of a neoplastic cell determines which changes provide adaptive benefits. There is widespread recognition of the importance of these evolutionary and ecological processes in cancer, but to date, no system has been proposed for drawing clinically relevant distinctions between how different tumours are evolving. On the basis of a consensus conference of experts in the fields of cancer evolution and cancer ecology, we propose a framework for classifying tumours that is based on four relevant components. These are the diversity of neoplastic cells (intratumoural heterogeneity) and changes over time in that diversity, which make up an evolutionary index (Evo-index), as well as the hazards to neoplastic cell survival and the resources available to neoplastic cells, which make up an ecological index (Eco-index). We review evidence demonstrating the importance of each of these factors and describe multiple methods that can be used to measure them. Development of this classification system holds promise for enabling clinicians to personalize optimal interventions based on the evolvability of the patient's tumour. The Evo- and Eco-indices provide a common lexicon for communicating about how neoplasms change in response to interventions, with potential implications for clinical trials, personalized medicine and basic cancer research.

Cancer is a ubiquitous disease of metazoans, predicted to disproportionately affect larger, long-lived organisms owing to their greater number of cell divisions, and thus increased probability of somatic mutations^1,2. While elevated cancer risk with larger body size and/or longevity has been documented within species^3–5, Peto’s paradox indicates the apparent lack of such an association among taxa⁶. Yet, unequivocal empirical evidence for Peto’s paradox is lacking, stemming from the difficulty of estimating cancer risk in non-model species. Here we build and analyse a database on cancer-related mortality using data on adult zoo mammals (110,148 individuals, 191 species) and map age-controlled cancer mortality to the mammalian tree of life. We demonstrate the universality and high frequency of oncogenic phenomena in mammals and reveal substantial differences in cancer mortality across major mammalian orders. We show that the phylogenetic distribution of cancer mortality is associated with diet, with carnivorous mammals (especially mammal-consuming ones) facing the highest cancer-related mortality. Moreover, we provide unequivocal evidence for the body size and longevity components of Peto’s paradox by showing that cancer mortality risk is largely independent of both body mass and adult life expectancy across species. These results highlight the key role of life-history evolution in shaping cancer resistance and provide major advancements in the quest for natural anticancer defences.

Oncogene amplification on extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA) drives the evolution of tumours and their resistance to treatment, and is associated with poor outcomes for patients with cancer^1–6. At present, it is unclear whether ecDNA is a later manifestation of genomic instability, or whether it can be an early event in the transition from dysplasia to cancer. Here, to better understand the development of ecDNA, we analysed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) or Barrett’s oesophagus. These data included 206 biopsies in Barrett’s oesophagus surveillance and EAC cohorts from Cambridge University. We also analysed WGS and histology data from biopsies that were collected across multiple regions at 2 time points from 80 patients in a case–control study at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center. In the Cambridge cohorts, the frequency of ecDNA increased between Barrett’s-oesophagus-associated early-stage (24%) and late-stage (43%) EAC, suggesting that ecDNA is formed during cancer progression. In the cohort from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 33% of patients who developed EAC had at least one oesophageal biopsy with ecDNA before or at the diagnosis of EAC. In biopsies that were collected before cancer diagnosis, higher levels of ecDNA were present in samples from patients who later developed EAC than in samples from those who did not. We found that ecDNAs contained diverse collections of oncogenes and immunomodulatory genes. Furthermore, ecDNAs showed increases in copy number and structural complexity at more advanced stages of disease. Our findings show that ecDNA can develop early in the transition from high-grade dysplasia to cancer, and that ecDNAs progressively form and evolve under positive selection.

Drug resistance mediated by clonal evolution is arguably the biggest problem in cancer therapy today. However, evolving resistance to one drug may come at a cost of decreased fecundity or increased sensitivity to another drug. These evolutionary trade-offs can be exploited using ‘evolutionary steering’ to control the tumour population and delay resistance. However, recapitulating cancer evolutionary dynamics experimentally remains challenging. Here, we present an approach for evolutionary steering based on a combination of single-cell barcoding, large populations of 10⁸–10⁹ cells grown without re-plating, longitudinal non-destructive monitoring of cancer clones, and mathematical modelling of tumour evolution. We demonstrate evolutionary steering in a lung cancer model, showing that it shifts the clonal composition of the tumour in our favour, leading to collateral sensitivity and proliferative costs. Genomic profiling revealed some of the mechanisms that drive evolved sensitivity. This approach allows modelling evolutionary steering strategies that can potentially control treatment resistance.

Abundance of immune cells has been shown to have prognostic and predictive significance in many tumor types. Beyond abundance, the spatial organization of immune cells in relation to cancer cells may also have significant functional and clinical implications. However there is a lack of systematic methods to quantify spatial associations between immune and cancer cells. We applied ecological measures of species interactions to digital pathology images for investigating the spatial associations of immune and cancer cells in breast cancer. We used the Morisita-Horn similarity index, an ecological measure of community structure and predator–prey interactions, to quantify the extent to which cancer cells and immune cells colocalize in whole-tumor histology sections. We related this index to disease-specific survival of 486 women with breast cancer and validated our findings in a set of 516 patients from different hospitals. Colocalization of immune cells with cancer cells was significantly associated with a disease-specific survival benefit for all breast cancers combined. In HER2-positive subtypes, the prognostic value of immune-cancer cell colocalization was highly significant and exceeded those of known clinical variables. Furthermore, colocalization was a significant predictive factor for long-term outcome following chemotherapy and radiotherapy in HER2 and Luminal A subtypes, independent of and stronger than all known clinical variables. Our study demonstrates how ecological methods applied to the tumor microenvironment using routine histology can provide reproducible, quantitative biomarkers for identifying high-risk breast cancer patients. We found that the clinical value of immune-cancer interaction patterns is highly subtype-specific but substantial and independent to known clinicopathologic variables that mostly focused on cancer itself. Our approach can be developed into computer-assisted prediction based on histology samples that are already routinely collected.