The aim of this paper is to analyse indices of extreme precipitation in Krivošije, Montenegro, the wettest Mediterranean region, from the period 1951–2007 and their relationships with atmospheric circulation using "SynopVis Grosswetterlagen" (SVG) series. Data from two stations were analysed, namely Crkvice (42°34'N and 18°39'E) and Herceg Novi (42°27'N and 18°31'E). Four indices of precipitation extremes (SDII, R75p, R95p, R95pTOT) were assessed including number of dry days. The results suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased. To analyse the relationship between extreme precipitation events and circulation types we have used an efficiency coefficient (Ec). Regarding relation to atmospheric circulation, westerly, southwesterly and northwesterly circulation types with anticyclonic features over Central Europe are more frequent for dry days (days with R<1.0 mm) and northerly, easterly and southerly types for wet and very wet days (R75p and R95p indices). The types with cyclonic condition over Central Europe show a large proportion of wet and very wet days. Also, activity of Genoa cyclogenesis and orographic influence over a small area are the main reasons for the high precipitation amounts recorded in the Krivošije region (Crkvice).
The share of wind power in energy consumption is continuously increasing at the national level as well as global. Many national strategies plan an increase in the installed capacity of wind farms in the future. Accordingly, this paper provides an assessment of spatial suitability for wind farm siting and estimation of wind power potential for the territory of Serbia. The unsuitable areas (75.91% of the territory) are extracted based on sociopolitical, physical, conservation, and pseudo-economic constraints (22 factors). The available land (24.09%) was evaluated applying the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the geographical information system (GIS) environment using several criteria (wind speed, elevation, slope, proximity to roads and power lines, distance from urban areas, land cover). After correction with the suitability factor, the estimated technical generation power potential is 97.57 TWh, i.e. 82.93 TWh with 15% included losses. The most prospective areas for the development of wind projects are the north (Bačka region), northeast (Banat region, along the lower Danube river valley), and east of Serbia (mountains region and Negotinska Krajina region).
In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia). In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (Tapp). As mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of deaths increases for 15.3% (p < .01), 22.4% (p < .05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p < .1). We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and Tapp in order to separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for 13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3% and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for Tapp). Estimated mortality excess with heat-wave indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and Tapp are good tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).
1 January 2019 in Journal of the Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic", SASA
The long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) is the leading global health risk factor. The spatio-temporal variability of annual values of the total PM2.5 concentrations in Serbia is analyzed using the high-resolution (0.01° × 0.01°) gridded data set V4.EU.02 for the period 2001-2016. Population counts and density data were used to calculate the population exposure while the urban land cover data were used to estimate the relations between the size of urban area and the concentration of PM2.5. The mean annual values vary in the range 13.93 μg/m3-28.91 μg/m3. The regional differences exist, but the highest values were obtained for urban environments (> 22.5 μg/m3). Negative trend of annual PM2.5 is present in most of the parts of the Serbian territory, especially in the eastern parts reaching -0.37 μg/m3 per year (p ≤ .05). More than 99% of the territory of Serbia has the mean annual values under the national safe limit established by regulation (25 μm/m3), but comparing to the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline (10 μm/m3), all the territory is above the safe level. In line with the trend of urbanization, there is a clear upward trend in the number of population exposed to the higher concentrations of PM2.5. The share of the population exposed to values higher than 25 μg/m3 increased from 6.65% in 2005 to 11.40% in 2015, while comparing to WHO standard, the total population in Serbia is exposed to the values higher than the safe one. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 47007: Geography of Serbia]