The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms’ invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.

Aedes mosquitoes (Diptera, Culicidae) are the major vectors for many mosquito-borne diseases. Here, we retrieved 878,954 global occurrences of 29 Aedes mosquito species and 30 candidate predictors at a global scale. We created a unified frame and built 29 multi-algorithm species distribution models to project the ranges and overlapped them to examine the range-overlap hotspots under future scenarios. We detected expanded ranges in most Aedes mosquito species, and a substantial increase in the index of habitat suitability overlap was detected in more than 70% of the global terrestrial area, particularly in Europe, North America, and Africa. We also identified extensive range overlap, which increased in future scenarios. Climatic factors had a more significant influence on range dynamics than other variables. The expanded ranges of most Aedes mosquito species and the substantial increase in the overlap index of habitat suitability in most regions suggest globally increasing threats of Aedes-borne epidemic transmission. Thus, much stricter strategies must be implemented, particularly in Europe, North America, and Africa. As climate change increases habitat suitability and expands ranges in most Aedes mosquito species, mitigating future climate change will be a key approach to combatting their impacts.

The desert locust Schistocerca gregagia (Forskål, 1775) is one of the most harmful migratory pests in the world, posing a major threat to agricultural production, livelihoods, and food security. Climate, land use, and topography influence the distribution of desert locusts, but few studies have integrated all the factors on a global scale to explore the suitable areas for desert locusts and the paths through which this species could potentially spread. In this study, we established ensemble distribution models to investigate the distribution patterns and driving factors of desert locusts under baseline and future scenarios; we used ensembled niche dynamic models to evaluate their niche conservation during outbreaks. The results showed that the most important factor influencing desert locust distribution is climate, especially the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the annual precipitation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter. Some areas with little or no desert locust distribution at present will be suitable for desert locusts in the future, and highly suitable contiguous areas may become the dispersal paths. The results also showed that the climatic niche of the desert locust is still conservative, which might explain why desert locusts tend to retreat after intermittent outbreaks rather than settle at the site of invasion. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the areas that are highly suitable for desert locusts, the key factors driving their outbreaks, and the shifting of their climatic niche in order to prevent desert locusts from settling in invasion areas and affecting local ecosystems and food security.