This paper explores the temporal and spatial patterns of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall series during the period of 1961–2018 at 15 stations in the agriculturally important Sebou river basin, northern Morocco. Trends were investigated using the classical non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Theil–Sen approach at 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels. A general decreasing trend was found at the annual scale, significant at the 95% confidence level at 8 stations out of 15 (53%). A particularly large decreasing trend between −30 mm and −50 mm per decade was found in the north and eastern parts of the basin. Autumn rainfall tended to increase, but this was not statistically significant. During the winter months, rainfall tended to decrease sharply (−27 mm and −40 mm per decade) in the northern slopes of the Rif mountains, while in spring, the mountainous area of the basin recorded decreases ranging between −12 mm and −16 mm per decade. During winter and spring, negative trends were significant at ten stations (66%). Summer rainfall tends toward a decrease, but the absolute change is small. These results help to understand the rainfall variability in the Sebou river basin and allow for improved mitigation strategies and water resource plans based on a prospective view of the impact of climate change on the river basin.

Morocco’s meteorological observation network is quite old, but the spatial coverage is insufficient to conduct studies over large areas, especially in mountainous regions, such as the Fez-Meknes region, where spatio-temporal variability in precipitation depends on altitude and exposure. The lack of station data is the main reason that led us to look for alternative solutions. TerraClimate (TC) reanalysis data were used to remedy this situation. However, reanalysis data are usually affected by a bias in the raw values. Bias correction methods generally involve a procedure in which a “transfer function” between the simulated and corrected variable is derived from the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of these variables. We explore the possibilities of using TC precipitation data for the Fez-Meknes administrative region (Morocco). This examination is of great interest for the region whose mountain peaks constitute the most important reservoir of water in the country, where TC data can overcome the difficulty of estimating precipitation in mountainous regions where the spatio-temporal variability is very high. Thus, we carried out the validation of TC data on stations belonging to plain and mountain topographic units and having different bioclimatic and topographic characteristics. Overall, the results demonstrate that the TC data capture the altitudinal gradient of precipitation and the average rainfall pattern, with a maximum in November and a minimum in July, which is a characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. However, we identified quasi-systematic biases, negative in mountainous regions and positive in lowland stations. In addition, summer precipitation is overestimated in mountain regions. It is considered that this bias comes from the imperfect representation of the physical processes of rainfall formation by the models. To reduce this bias, we applied the quantile mapping (QM) method. After correction using five QM variants, a significant improvement was observed for all stations and most months, except for May. Validation statistics for the five bias correction variants do not indicate the superiority of any particular method in terms of robustness. Indeed, results indicate that most QM methods lead to a significant improvement in TC data after monthly bias corrections.

Morocco is among the regions in the Mediterranean basin most exposed to the impacts of climate variability and change. This increasing exposure requires a detailed and rigorous analysis of regional atmospheric dynamics to better understand the mechanisms behind recent climate trends. This study aims to examine the variability of circulation weather types (CWTs) at a regional scale over the period 1980–2019, within a geographical area bounded by latitudes 20° to 40° N and longitudes 10° to 22.5° W. The analysis is based on data from the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2, including mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500), with a spatial resolution of 2.5° in both latitude and longitude. The adopted methodology identifies daily CWT using a principal component analysis (PCA) in S-mode with Varimax rotation (PCAV), followed by the evaluation of their monthly distributions and temporal trends. The analysis highlights a marked trend toward increased atmospheric configurations conducive to hot conditions during the dry season, associated with the intensification and northward shift in the Saharan thermal low. This dynamic is reinforced by the increased frequency of ridges or high geopotential heights at 500 hPa, which transport warm tropical air toward the region. Moreover, the study reveals a notable decrease in the frequency of upper-level troughs at 500 hPa during the wet season. These upper-level troughs play a crucial role in cyclogenesis and the delivery of precipitation. These findings indicate a shift toward a regional atmospheric dynamic unfavorable to Morocco’s hydric balance, characterized by more frequent and intense summer heat and worsening winter drought.