chaohao xiao

Dr. chaohao xiao


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

6Years (2021-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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8 October 2021 in Entropy
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
KPKecheng Peng
Kecheng Peng
XCXiaoqun Cao
Xiaoqun Cao
BLBainian Liu
Bainian Liu
YGYan-Nan Guo
Yan-Nan Guo
CXchaohao xiao
chaohao xiao
WTWenlong Tian
Wenlong Tian
The variation of polar vortex intensity is a significant factor affecting the atmospheric conditions and weather in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and even the world. However, previous studies on the prediction of polar vortex intensity are insufficient. This paper establishes a deep learning (DL) model for multi-day and long-time intensity prediction of the polar vortex. Focusing on the winter period with the strongest polar vortex intensity, geopotential height (GPH) data of NCEP from 1948 to 2020 at 50 hPa are used to construct the dataset of polar vortex anomaly distribution images and polar vortex intensity time series. Then, we propose a new convolution neural network with long short-term memory based on Gaussian smoothing (GSCNN-LSTM) model which can not only accurately predict the variation characteristics of polar vortex intensity from day to day, but also can produce a skillful forecast for lead times of up to 20 days. Moreover, the innovative GSCNN-LSTM model has better stability and skillful correlation prediction than the traditional and some advanced spatiotemporal sequence prediction models. The accuracy of the model suggests important implications that DL methods have good applicability in forecasting the nonlinear system and vortex spatial–temporal characteristics variation in the atmosphere.