The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming‐cooling‐warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO‐based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Wavelet analysis of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index back to 1659 reveals a significant frequency band at about 60 years. Recent NAO decadal variations, including the increasing trend during 1960–1990 and decreasing trend since the mid-1990s, can be well explained by the approximate 60-year cycle. This quasi 60-year oscillation of the NAO is realistically reproduced in a long-term control simulation with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model, and the possible mechanisms are further investigated. The positive NAO forces the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and induces a basin-wide uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming that corresponds to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The SST field exhibits a delayed response to the preceding enhanced AMOC, and shows a pattern similar to the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), with SST warming in the northern North Atlantic and cooling in the southern part. This SST pattern (negative NAT phase) may lead to an atmospheric response that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has significant potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records.

The Victoria mode (VM) represents the second dominant mode (empirical orthogonal function, EOF2) of North Pacific variability, independent of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and is defined as the EOF2 of SST anomalies in the North Pacific poleward of 20°N. The present study indicates that the VM is closely linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The VM may effectively act as an ocean bridge (or conduit) through which the extratropical atmospheric variability in the North Pacific influences ENSO. The VM can trigger the onset of ENSO via the following two dominant processes: (1) surface air‐sea coupling associated with the VM in the subtropical/tropical Pacific and (2) evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomalies along the equator associated with the VM. These two processes may force sufficient surface warming to occur in the central eastern equatorial Pacific from spring to summer, which in turn initiates an ENSO event. The VM influence on ENSO relies on a basin‐scale air‐sea interaction dynamic, as opposed to more local‐scale dynamics typically associated with the seasonal footprinting mechanism or Pacific meridional mode. The majority of VM events are followed by ENSO events. These ENSO events triggered by VM include El Niño Modoki (EM) as well as conventional El Niño. There is no evidence that the VM tends to be more conducive to the initialization of EM than conventional El Niño.

The time series of 20th century Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation (SWP) shows variations over decadal timescales, including a wetting trend since the 1970s. Here, it is shown that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) can be implicated as a remote driver of the decadal-scale variations in SWP. Observational analysis identifies a significant in-phase relationship between the AMV and SWP and the SWP decadal variability can be largely explained by the AMV. The physical mechanism for this relationship is investigated using both observations and numerical simulations. The results suggest that North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated with the positive AMV phase can excite an eastward propagating wave train response across the entire Eurasian continent, which includes an east–west dipole structure over Siberia. The dipole then leads to anomalous southerly winds bringing moisture northward to Siberia; the precipitation increases correspondingly. The mechanism is further supported by linear barotropic modeling and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis.