Soil freeze–thaw processes are remarkable features of the land surface across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Soil moisture and temperature fluctuate during the freeze–thaw cycle, affecting the soil water and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere. This study investigates variations in the soil temperature, humidity, and freeze–thaw state and their responses to air temperature and precipitation on the TP from 1981 to 2016. Regional simulations of the TP using Community Land Model version 4.5 demonstrate that the climate of the TP has become warmer and wetter over the past 37 years, with increases in both regional average temperature and precipitation. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis and the Mann–Kendall trend test of air temperature, we show that 1980–1998 was relatively cold, and 1999–2016 was relatively warm. Soil temperature and moisture in most areas of the TP were affected by air temperature and precipitation, and both showed an upward trend during the past 37 years. Overall, from 1981 to 2016, the freezing date of the TP has become delayed, the thawing date has been hastened, and the duration of the freeze–thaw state has shortened. The surface soil freezes and thaws first, and these processes pervade deeper soil with the passage of time; freeze–thaw processes have an obvious hysteresis. Precipitation and air temperature had marked effects on the freeze–thaw processes. Higher air temperatures delay the freezing date, hasten the thawing date, and shorten the freeze–thaw period. Areas with the highest precipitation saw late soil freeze, early thaw, and the shortest freeze–thaw duration. Areas with less vegetation froze earlier and thawed later. The freeze–thaw duration increased in the northwest of the plateau and decreased on the rest of the plateau. This article informs research on frozen soil change in the context of global warming.

Based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the dominant modes of variations in summer surface sensible heating (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), as well as the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies, were investigated in this study. The results show that the first dominant mode of summer SH presents a feature of decadal reduction over the whole TP on an interdecadal time scale, and the second dominant mode is characterized by a zonally asymmetric pattern with positive (negative) SH anomalies in the western (eastern) TP on an interannual time scale. The variations of summer SH are dominated by anomalies in downwelling surface shortwave radiation (DSWR), which are associated with atmospheric circulation changes. The first dominant mode of variation in SH is connected to the interdecadal variation of the Silk Road Pattern (SRP). Further analysis reveals that the interdecadal phase shift of the SRP induces anticyclone circulation to the northeast of the TP, leading to enhanced water vapor supply and convergence over the TP. This can lead to an increase in the total cloud cover, and a reduction in DSWR, contributing to the decadal reduction in SH over the TP. The second dominant mode of variation in SH is related to a stationary teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent named the North Atlantic-East and North Asia pattern (NAENA). Corresponding to the positive phase of the NAENA, there is a cyclone anomaly to the west TP, leading to anomalous water vapor convergence (divergence) over the eastern (western) TP. This can result in enhanced (decreased) cloud cover, reduced (increased) DSWR, and therefore, an anomalous decrease (enhancement) in SH over the east (west) of the TP. Furthermore, the southwesterly wind anomaly, which is accompanied by the anomalous cyclone to the west TP, leads to positive SH in the western TP.

Climate change intensifies hydrological cycles, leading to an increased variability in terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) and a heightened drought risk. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of TWSAs and their driving factors is crucial for sustainable water management. While previous studies have primarily attributed TWSAs to regional factors, this study employs wavelet coherence, partial correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression to comprehensively analyze TWSA dynamics and their drivers in the Hengduan Mountains (HDM) region from 2003 to 2022, incorporating both regional and global influences. Additionally, dry–wet variations were quantified using the GRACE-based Drought Severity Index (GRACE-DSI). Key findings include the following: The annual mean TWSA showed a non-significant decreasing trend (−2.83 mm/y, p > 0.05), accompanied by increased interannual variability. Notably, approximately 36.22% of the pixels in the western HDM region exhibited a significantly decreasing trend. The Nujiang River Basin (NRB) (−17.17 mm/y, p < 0.01) and the Lancang (−17.17 mm/y, p < 0.01) River Basin experienced the most pronounced declines. Regional factors—particularly precipitation (PRE)—drove TWSA in 59% of the HDM region, followed by potential evapotranspiration (PET, 28%) and vegetation dynamics (13%). Among global factors, the North Atlantic Oscillation showed a weak correlation with TWSAs (r = −0.19), indirectly affecting it via winter PET (r = −0.56, p < 0.05). The decline in TWSAs corresponds to an elevated drought risk, notably in the NRB, which recorded the largest GRACE-DSI decline (slope = −0.011, p < 0.05). This study links TWSAs to climate drivers and drought risk, offering a framework for improving water resource management and drought preparedness in climate-sensitive mountain regions.