Short term forecasting is essential and challenging in time series data analysis for traffic flow research. A novel deep learning architecture on short-term traffic flow prediction was presented in this work. In conventional model-driven prediction method, a critical deviation in prediction accuracy was occurred in face of large fluctuations in traffic flow, while machine and deep learning-based approaches performed well in accuracy study than conventional regression-based models. Moreover, a fusion attention mechanism bidirectional long short-term memory model (ATT-BiLSTM) was proposed due to its bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) and attention mechanism units. The model not only dealt with forward and backward dependencies in time series data, but also integrated the attention mechanism to improve the ability on key information representation. The BiLSTM layer was exploited to capture bidirectional temporal and spatial features dependencies from historical data. The proposed model was also trained and validated using freeway toll datasets from Humen Bridge. The results showed that compared with ARIMA and SVR models, the indicators of the proposed model have been significantly improved. The ablation experiments were conducted to evaluate the role of the attention mechanism module. Compared with BiLSTM, CNN and 1DCNN-ATT-BiLSTM models, the MAE, RMSE and MAPE indexes of proposed model were reduced by 0.6–5.9%, 1.6–4.7% and 0.6–22.8%, respectively. More accurate predictions were obtained by the proposed model. The research results are of great significance to improve the level of traffic management.

Previously compute models usually applied the assumption that people would adopt the shortest route to escape, or be given fixed destination. But the diversity of characteristics mean everyone has an individual determination based on optimal utility including distance, crowding level, and personalized cognition. We focused on the correlation between individual feature and their initial exits strategy in crowded places. By carrying out a questionnaire survey about individual characteristics, spatial cognition, and personalized decision in a market, we found that each pedestrian held different preferences and probabilities of choosing a particular exit for evacuation due to diversity of social background. An emergency exits choice preference model was proposed to analyze escape behavior and to determine the initial preference. The model could balance the influence of differentiated cognition of various pedestrians against the practical evacuating state and surroundings. And also, it could predict the destinations choosing probability in emergency. The result showed the evacuation duration, maximum density, and highest density were more optimal. Applying this model, the pedestrians’ averaged density of exits decreased obviously. Stampede risk was significantly reduced. We expected to make a step that the pedestrian behavior simulation will advance on integrating the human social behavior from theoretical precision.