The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with anR2value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.
10 January 2017 in International Journal of TROPICAL DISEASE & Health
Objective: Evaluating the effectiveness of a surveillance system, and how it improves over time has significant implications for disease control and prevention. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) was implemented to estimate the burden of disease, monitor changes in disease occurrence, and inform resource allocation. For this effort we utilized national passive surveillance data from DRC’s IDSR to explore reporting trends of human monkeypox (MPX) from 2001 to 2013. Methods: We obtained surveillance data on MPX cases occurring between January 2001 and December 2013 from the DRC Ministry of Health (MoH). Phases of the surveillance system, yearly trends in reporting and estimated incidence for MPX were analyzed using SAS v9.2 and Health Mapper. Results: Between 2001 and 2013, three discrete surveillance phases were identified that described the evolution of the surveillance system. Overall, an increase in suspected MPX cases was reported, beyond what would be expected from simply an improved reporting system. When restricting the analysis to the “stable phase,” national estimated incidence increased from 2.13 per 100,000 in 2008 to 2.84 per 100,000 in 2013. Conclusions: The reported increase in MPX, based on an evolving surveillance system, is likely to be a true increase in disease occurrence rather than simply improvements to the surveillance system. Further analyses should provide critical information for improved prevention and control strategies and highlight areas of improvement for future data collection efforts.
Schistosomiasis afflicts an estimated 10 million pregnant women in Africa annually. With mounting evidence of adverse impacts to reproductive health resulting from urogenital schistosomiasis, including increased transmission of HIV, further research on prenatal disease epidemiology is warranted, with implications for maternal and fetal health. Between October 2016 and March 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional study examining the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis and its association with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) other than HIV among pregnant women visiting antenatal clinics in Kisantu health zone, Democratic Republic of Congo. An extensive sociodemographic and clinical survey was administered to consenting participants, with urine samples and vaginal swabs collected to deduce active schistosomiasis and STIs, respectively. In total, 17.4% of expectant mothers were infected with Schistosoma haematobium, 3.1% with Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), 1.4% with Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and 14.6% with Trichomonas vaginalis (TV). Women infected with urogenital schistosomiasis were at significantly increased odds of harboring a CT, NG, or TV infection (adjusted odds ratio = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.5, 6.0), but reports of clinical symptoms were low, ranging from 17.2% of schistosomiasis to 30.8% of TV cases. Laboratory confirmation of schistosomiasis and STIs provided objective evidence of disease in a cohort with low symptomology where syndromic management may not suffice. Shedding light on local risk factors and associated coinfections of urogenital schistosomiasis can identify unique intervention opportunities for prenatal care in trematode-endemic regions and aid in reducing adverse pregnancy outcomes.