Overweight and obesity are common health conditions and their prevalence is increasing globally.^1-3 Recent estimates suggest that 1 in 2 adults in the United States is overweight or obese, defined by a body mass index (BMI) of higher than 25, an increase of more than 25% over the past 3 decades.⁴ These dramatic increases have occurred among the 3 major racial and ethnic groups and include both sexes.⁴

Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

The oxidative modification of low-density lipoproteins increases their incorporation into the arterial intima, an essential step in atherogenesis. Although dietary antioxidants, such as vitamin C, carotene, and vitamin E, have been hypothesized to prevent coronary heart disease, prospective epidemiologic data are sparse. In 1986, 39,910 U.S. male health professionals 40 to 75 years of age who were free of diagnosed coronary heart disease, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia completed detailed dietary questionnaires that assessed their usual intake of vitamin C, carotene, and vitamin E in addition to other nutrients. During four years of follow-up, we documented 667 cases of coronary disease. After controlling for age and several coronary risk factors, we observed a lower risk of coronary disease among men with higher intakes of vitamin E (P for trend = 0.003). For men consuming more than 60 IU per day of vitamin E, the multivariate relative risk was 0.64 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.49 to 0.83) as compared with those consuming less than 7.5 IU per day. As compared with men who did not take vitamin E supplements, men who took at least 100 IU per day for at least two years had a multivariate relative risk of coronary disease of 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.47 to 0.84). Carotene intake was not associated with a lower risk of coronary disease among those who had never smoked, but it was inversely associated with the risk among current smokers (relative risk, 0.30; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.11 to 0.82) and former smokers (relative risk, 0.60; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38 to 0.94). In contrast, a high intake of vitamin C was not associated with a lower risk of coronary disease. These data do not prove a causal relation, but they provide evidence of an association between a high intake of vitamin E and a lower risk of coronary heart disease in men. Public policy recommendations with regard to the use of vitamin E supplements should await the results of additional studies.

The authors assessed the reproducibility and validity of an expanded 131-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire used in a prospective study among 51, 529 men. The form was administered by mail twice to a sample of 127 participants at a one-year interval. During this interval, men completed two one-week diet records spaced approximately 6 months apart. Mean values for intake of most nutrients assessed by the two methods were similar. Intraclass correlation coefficients for nutrient intakes assessed by questionnaires one year apart ranged from 0.47 for vitamin E without supplements to 0.80 for vitamin C with supplements. Correlation coefficients between the energy-adjusted nutrient intakes measured by diet records and the second questionnaire (which asked about diet during the year encompassing the diet records) ranged from 0.28 for iron without supplements to 0.86 for vitamin C with supplements (mean r = 0.59). These correlations were higher after adjusting for week-to-week variation in diet record intakes (mean r = 0.65). These data indicate that the expanded semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire is reproducible and provides a useful measure of intake for many nutrients over a one-year period. Am J Epidemiol 1992; 135: 1114–26

Interest in the antioxidant vitamin E as a possible protective nutrient against coronary disease has intensified with the recognition that oxidized low-density lipoprotein may be involved in atherogenesis. In 1980, 87,245 female nurses 34 to 59 years of age who were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer completed dietary questionnaires that assessed their consumption of a wide range of nutrients, including vitamin E. During follow-up of up to eight years (679,485 person-years) that was 97 percent complete, we documented 552 cases of major coronary disease (437 nonfatal myocardial infarctions and 115 deaths due to coronary disease). As compared with women in the lowest fifth of the cohort with respect to vitamin E intake, those in the top fifth had a relative risk of major coronary disease of 0.66 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.87) after adjustment for age and smoking. Further adjustment for a variety of other coronary risk factors and nutrients, including other antioxidants, had little effect on the results. Most of the variability in intake and reduction in risk was attributable to vitamin E consumed as supplements. Women who took vitamin E supplements for short periods had little apparent benefit, but those who took them for more than two years had a relative risk of major coronary disease of 0.59 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.38 to 0.91) after adjustment for age, smoking status, risk factors for coronary disease, and use of other antioxidant nutrients (including multivitamins). Although these prospective data do not prove a cause-and-effect relation, they suggest that among middle-aged women the use of vitamin E supplements is associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease. Randomized trials of vitamin E in the primary and secondary prevention of coronary disease are being conducted; public policy recommendations about the widespread use of vitamin E should await the results of these trials.

To examine the relation between adult weight change and the risk for clinical diabetes mellitus among middle-aged women. Prospective cohort study with follow-up from 1976 to 1990. 11 U.S. states. 114 281 female registered nurses aged 30 to 55 years who did not have diagnosed diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, or cancer in 1976. Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. 2204 cases of diabetes were diagnosed during 1.49 million person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for age, body mass index was the dominant predictor of risk for diabetes mellitus. Risk increased with greater body mass index, and even women with average weight (body mass index, 24.0 kg/m²) had an elevated risk. Compared with women with stable weight (those who gained or lost less than 5 kg between age 18 years and 1976) and after adjustment for age and body mass index at age 18 years, the relative risk for diabetes mellitus among women who had a weight gain of 5.0 to 7.9 kg was 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5 to 2.3). The corresponding relative risk for women who gained 8.0 to 10.9 kg was 2.7 (CI, 2.1 to 3.3). In contrast, women who lost more than 5.0 kg reduced their risk for diabetes mellitus by 50% or more. These results were independent of family history of diabetes. The excess risk for diabetes with even modest and typical adult weight gain is substantial. These findings support the importance of maintaining a constant body weight throughout adult life and suggest that the 1990 U.S. Department of Agriculture guidelines that allow a substantial weight gain after 35 years of age are misleading.