Nowadays, in the domain of production logistics, one of the most complex planning processes is the accurate forecasting of production and assembly efficiency. In industrial companies, Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) is one of the most common used efficiency measures at semi-automatic assembly lines. Proper estimation supports the right use of resources and more accurate and cost-effective delivery to the customers. This paper presents the prediction of OEE by comparing human prediction with one of the techniques of supervised machine learning through a real-life example. In addition to descriptive statistics, takt time-based decision trees are applied and the target-oriented OEE prediction model is presented. This concept takes into account recent data and assembly line targets with different weights. Using the model, the value of OEE can be predicted with an accuracy of within 1% on a weekly basis, four weeks in advance.

Nowadays, one of the important and indispensable conditions for the effectiveness and competitiveness of industrial companies is the high efficiency of manufacturing and assembly. These enterprises based on different methods and tools systematically monitor their efficiency metrics with Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). One of these most frequently used metrics is Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE), the product of availability, performance and quality. In addition to monitoring, it is also necessary to predict efficiency, which can be implemented with the support of machine learning techniques. This paper presents and compares several supervised machine learning techniques amongst other polynomial regression, lasso regression, ridge regression and gradient boost regression. The aim of this article is to determine the best estimation method for semiautomatic assembly line and large batch size. The case study presented with a real industrial example gives the answer as to which of the cumulative or rolling horizon prediction methods is more accurate.

Nowadays, Industry 4.0 and the Smart Manufacturing environment are increasingly taking advantage of Artificial Intelligence. There are more and more sensors, cameras, vision systems and barcodes in the production area, as a result of which the volume of data recorded during manufacturing and assembly operations is growing extremely fast. The interpretation and processing of such production-type data by humans is no longer possible effectively. In the Big Data domain, machine learning is playing an increasingly important role within data mining. This paper focuses on the product change processes of semi-automatic assembly line batch production and examines the impact of product type changes on the Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) and attempts to determine future values through supervised machine learning. Using decision tree technology, the effect on the OEE value can be predicted with an accuracy of up to 1%. The presented data and conclusions come from a real industrial environment, so the obtained results are proven in practice.

Nowadays, a lot of data is generated in production and also in the domain of assembly, from which different patterns can be extracted using machine learning methods with the support of data mining. With the support of various modern technical and Information Technology (IT) tools, the recording, storage and processing of large amounts of data is now a routine activity. Based on machine learning, efficiency metrics including Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE), can be partially predicted, but industrial companies need more accurate and reliable methods. The analyzed algorithms can be used in general for all production units or machines where production data is recorded by Manufacturing Execution System (MES) or other Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems are available. This paper presents and determinates which most used machine learning methods should be combined with each other in order to achieve a better prediction result.