Large-scale human activities especially the destruction of forest land, grassland, and unused land result in a large amount of carbon release into the atmosphere and cause drastic changes in land use/cover in the Sanjiang Plain. As a climate change-sensitive and ecologically vulnerable area, the Sanjiang Plain ecosystem’s carbon cycle is affected by significant climate change. Therefore, it is important that studying the impact of the changes in land use/cover and climate on vegetation carbon storage in the Sanjiang Plain. Remote sensing, temperature, and precipitation data in four periods from 2001 to 2015 are used as bases in conducting an analysis of land use/cove types and spatio-temporal variation of vegetation carbon density and carbon storage in growing season using model and related analysis methods. Moreover, the impact of land use/cover change and climate change on vegetation carbon density and carbon storage is discussed. The findings are as follows. (1) Cultivated land in the Sanjiang Plain increased, while forest land, grassland and unused land generally decreased. (2) Vegetation carbon density increased, in which the average carbon density of cultivated land, grassland, and unused land varied insignificantly, while that of forest land increased continuously from 4.18 kg C/m² in 2001 to 7.65 kg C/m² in 2015. Vegetation carbon storage increased from 159.18 Tg C in 2001 to 256.83 Tg C in 2015, of which vegetation carbon storage of forest land contributed 94% and 97%, respectively. (3) Conversion of land use/cover types resulted in a 22.76-TgC loss of vegetation carbon storage. Although the forest land area decreased by 3389.5 km², vegetation carbon storage in the research area increased by 97.65 Tg C owing to the increase of forest carbon density. (4) Pixel-by-pixel analysis showed that vegetation carbon storage in the majority of the areas of the Sanjiang Plain are negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. The results showed that changes of land use/cover types and vegetation carbon density directly lead to a change in vegetation carbon storage, with the change of forest vegetation carbon density being the main driver affecting vegetation carbon storage variation. The increase of temperature mainly suppresses the vegetation carbon density, and the increase of precipitation mainly promotes it.

The conservation management of biodiversity hotspots is of vital significance for biological conservation. For wetlands, which are a special type of ecosystems that are based on water as their main medium, a decline in external hydrological connectivity often leads to wetland degradation inside biodiversity hotspots. In this context, the relationship between hydrological connectivity changes inside and outside hotspots is worth exploring. Based on the wetland biodiversity hotspots identified using systematic conservation planning, this study selected eight representative biodiversity hotspots with concentrated area. Integral index of connectivity, probability of connectivity (representing structural connectivity), and morphological spatial pattern analysis (representing functional connectivity) were used to analyze the hydrological connectivity changes inside various hotspots for 1995–2015. By taking the catchment area involved as the minimum basin perimeter, this study calculated the external hydrological connectivity changes of various hotspots during this period and analyzed the relationship between hydrological connectivity changes inside and outside of hotspots. The internal and external hydrological connectivity of wetland biodiversity hotspots were found to be significantly correlated. Moreover, the internal hydrological connectivity of hotspots not only declined with declining external structural connectivity, but also changed with the proportion of core wetlands, the proportion of edge wetlands, and the proportion of branch corridors. In addition, hotspots located at intersections of high-grade rivers were more significantly affected by climate change than by human activities and their hydrological connectivity increased with increasing rainfall. The internal hydrological connectivity of hotspots near low-grade rivers presented a declining trend, mainly because of human activities. This study clarified the relationship between internal and external hydrological connectivity of wetland biodiversity hotspots. Targeted internal and external control strategies are proposed, with the aim to offer references for the conservation of wetland biodiversity.

The conflict between grain production and wetland resource protection in plain wetland is prominent. Understanding the future impacts of current land use policies on wetlands is the key to rationally evaluating and adjusting these policies. Therefore, the objective of the research was to predict the potential distribution of Sanjiang plain wetland under the current land use and protection policy using remote sensing images and CA Markov models. Methodologically, Landsat TM remote sensing images of the Sanjiang Plain (2010–2020) were used to extract wetland distribution based on object-oriented methods, and the characteristics and patterns of wetland change caused by the land use and protection policies during this period were analyzed. A CA–Markov model was used to predict the potential distribution of Sanjiang Plain wetland in 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. Then, we summarized the advantages and disadvantages of current land use policies and put forward adjustment measures. The results indicate that during 2010 and 2020, the wetland area of Sanjiang Plain decreased by 22.34%. The conversion ratio of wetland to non-wetland type (mainly farmland) in the first half and the second half of the decade was 46.41% and 15.31%, respectively, and the decrease in wetland showed an obvious slowing trend. The spatial distribution prediction in future showed that the wetland area will continue to decline in 2030, and the decline will basically stop in 2040. Finally, the proportion of wetland area will remain at 8.68% of the total area of Sanjiang Plain, with that of some counties and cities less than 5%. It is concluded that, although the current land use policies in Sanjiang Plain can effectively slow down the wetland area shrinking and stabilize the spatial pattern, a very low proportion of wetland area in some areas will make it difficult for the wetland ecosystem to exert ecological functions and ensure regional ecological security. The wetland conservation managers should adjust the current land use policies according to relevant requirements of farmland protection policies and restore the areal proportion and spatial pattern of wetland in order to help with regional sustainable development.