Heatwaves represent a significant and growing threat to natural ecosystems and socio‐economic structures, making heatwave risk mitigation and prevention an important area of research. In exploring heatwave frequency and intensity from 1901 to 2020, the present study finds a sharp increase in both. The study also finds that the spatial distribution of heatwaves is unequal, the volatility of intensity characteristics has become more prominent over time, and the Gini coefficients of four key heatwave indictors have become larger due to increasing dryness. Although heatwaves occur more frequently in drylands, there is greater cumulative heat in humid areas, resulting in a higher heatwave risk in those areas. The global heatwave risk over the past three decades (1991–2020) has increased nearly five‐fold compared to the early 20th century (1901–1930). Furthermore, GeoDetector analysis indicates that the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and downward surface shortwave radiation (Srad) contributing the most in drylands and humid areas (0.29 and 0.41, respectively). The contribution of relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), soil moisture (SM), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is also significant in humid areas, but is much smaller in drylands. Composite analysis shows that the years with anomalously high heatwave risk correspond to positive anomalies of 500hPa geopotential height and surface pressure. The inhibition of cloud formation due to sinking air and the resulting increase in temperature in the atmosphere may be increasing the risk of heatwave occurrence. This study emphasizes the urgent need to address worsening climate change impacts.

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs’ accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs’ average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones.

The Tarim River Basin is the largest inland river basin in China. It is located in an extremely arid region, where agriculture and animal husbandry are the main development industries. The recent rapid rise in population and land demand has intensified the competition for urban land use, making the water body ecosystem increasingly fragile. In light of these issues, it is important to comprehensively grasp regional land structure changes, improve the degree of land use, and reasonably allocate water resources to achieve the sustainable development of both the social economy and the ecological environment. This study uses the CA-Markov model, the PLUS model and the gray prediction model to simulate and validate land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Tarim River Basin, based on remote sensing data. The aim of this research is to discern the dynamic LUCC patterns and predict the evolution of future spatial and temporal patterns of land use. The study results show that grassland and barren land are currently the main land types in the Tarim River Basin. Furthermore, the significant expansion of cropland area and reduction in barren land area are the main characteristics of the changes during the study period (1992–2020), when about 1.60% of grassland and 1.36% of barren land converted to cropland. Over the next 10 years, we anticipate that land-use types in the basin will be dominated by changes in grassland and barren land, with an increasing trend in land area other than for cropland and barren land. Grassland will add 31,241.96 km², mainly in the Dina River and the lower parts of the Weigan-Kuqu, Kashgar, Kriya, and Qarqan rivers, while barren land will decline 2.77%, with significant decreases in the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River Basin. The findings of this study will provide a solid scientific basis for future land resource planning.

Ecosystem services (ESs) are crucial for sustainable development, as they impact human well-being. However, changes in land use/land cover (LULC) caused by climate change and social development can negatively affect ESs, particularly in arid river basins. This study focuses on current and future changes in LULC in the Kaxghar River Basin (KRB) in Xinjiang, China, to determine how these changes will affect the region’s ESs. The integrated PLUS-InVEST model was used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and changing patterns of habitat quality (HQ) and carbon storage (CS) under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), and water protection scenario (WPS). Additionally, the Ecosystem Service Contribution Index (ESCI) was also calculated to evaluate the contribution of LULC changes to ESs. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average value of HQ in the KRB gradually decreased from 0.54 to 0.49 and CS trended slightly upward, with a total increase of 0.07 × 10⁶ t. Furthermore, the changes in CS were highly consistent with changes in LULC. (2) From 2020 to 2030, the area of low-grade (0–0.2) HQ saw a continuous increase, with the fastest growth occurring in 2030 under the EDS. Meanwhile, under the WPS, HQ significantly improved, expanding by 1238 km² in area. Total CS under the three test scenarios tended to decline, with the NIS showing the smallest decrease. (3) The expansion of cropland and unused land had a negative impact on ESs, particularly on CS, whereas the conversion to grassland and forestland had a significant positive impact. In conclusion, these insights will enrich our understanding of ESs in the study area and contribute to balancing the relationship between ecological conservation and socioeconomic development in the Kaxghar River Basin, as well as in other parts of China’s arid Northwest and similar regions around the world.