Forest fires are disasters that are common around the world. They pose an ongoing challenge in scientific and forest management. Predicting forest fires improves the levels of forest-fire prevention and risk avoidance. This study aimed to construct a forest risk map for China. We base our map on Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite data from 17,330 active fires for the period 2012–2019, and combined terrain, meteorology, social economy, vegetation, and other factors closely related to the generation of forest-fire disasters for modeling and predicting forest fires. Four machine learning models for predicting forest fires were compared (i.e., random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithm), and the RF model was chosen (its accuracy, precision, recall, F1, AUC values were 87.99%, 85.94%, 91.51%, 88.64% and 95.11% respectively). The Chinese seasonal fire zoning map was drawn with the municipal administrative unit as the spatial scale for the first time. The results show evident seasonal and regional differences in the Chinese forest-fire risks; forest-fire risks are relativity high in the spring and winter, but low in fall and summer, and the areas with high regional fire risk are mainly in the provinces of Yunnan (including the cities of Qujing, Lijiang, and Yuxi), Guangdong (including the cities of Shaoguan, Huizhou, and Qingyuan), and Fujian (including the cities of Nanping and Sanming). The major contributions of this study are to (i) provide a framework for large-scale forest-fire risk prediction having a low cost, high precision, and ease of operation, and (ii) improve the understanding of forest-fire risks in China.

Assessing and predicting forest fires has long been an arduous task. Nowadays, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies have provided a novel solution to forest fire occurrence assessment and prediction. In this research, we developed a novel hybrid machine-learning-technique algorithm to improve forest fire prediction based on random forest (RF), gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT), support vector machine (SVM), and other machine learning models. The dataset we employed was satellite fire point data from 2010 to 2018 from the Chinese Department of Fire Prevention. The efficacy and performance of our methods were examined by validating the model fit and predictive capability. The results showed that the ensemble model LR (logistic regression)-RF-SVM-GBDT outperformed the single RFSVMGBDT model and the LR-RF-GBDT integrated framework, displaying higher accuracy and greater robustness. We believe that our newly developed hybrid machine-learning algorithm has the potential to improve the accuracy of predicting forest fire occurrences, thus enabling more efficient firefighting efforts and saving time and resources.

Contemporary research on terrestrial carbon exchange processes is paramount for a nuanced comprehension of global and local climatic fluctuations and their interaction with anthropogenic activities. This study delves into the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation carbon exchanges within the Three Northern Protection Forest Project Area, leveraging two decades of MODIS NPP data and an innovative NEP estimation model. Our analysis highlights a generally increasing trend in Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) from 2000 to 2020, with significant growth in approximately 32.97% of the study area and slight increases in 24.18%. Notably, lower NEP values were found in desert and arid zones, whereas higher values were observed in more vegetated regions like Ningxia, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and the northeast. The study also assesses the impact of climate variables and land-use changes on NEP, identifying both negative and positive correlations in specific regions. Despite the overall positive trend towards ecological restoration and enhancement, significant uncertainties remain, emphasizing the urgent need for further research to support ecosystem resilience and sustainable management practices.