Climate change may cause severe hydrological droughts, leading to water shortages which will require to be assessed using high-resolution data. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite Terrestrial Water Storage (TWSA) estimates offer a promising solution to monitor hydrological drought, but its coarse resolution (1°) limits its applications to small regions of the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). Here we employed machine learning models such as Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to downscale GRACE TWSA from 1° to 0.25°. The findings revealed that the XGBoost model outperformed the ANN model with Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) (0.99), Pearson correlation (R) (0.99), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (5.22 mm), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) (2.75 mm) between the predicted and GRACE-derived TWSA. Further, Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI) and WSD (Water Storage Deficit) were used to determine the severity and episodes of droughts, respectively. The results of WSDI exhibited a strong agreement when compared with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales (1-, 3-, and 6-months) and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). Moreover, the IBIS had experienced increasing drought episodes, e.g., eight drought episodes were detected within the years 2010 and 2016 with WSDI of −1.20 and −1.28 and total WSD of −496.99 mm and −734.01 mm, respectively. The Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) model between WSDI and climatic variables indicated that potential evaporation had the largest influence on drought after precipitation. The findings of this study will be helpful for drought-related decision-making in IBIS.

The quality and quantity of groundwater resources are affected by landuse/landcover (LULC) dynamics, particularly the increasing urbanization coupled with high household wastewater discharge and decreasing open lands. This study evaluates temporal changes of groundwater quality for 2012 and 2019, its relation to Landuse/landcover, and its impact on Peshawar's residents (study area), Pakistan. A total of 105 and 112 groundwater samples were collected from tube wells in 2012 and 2019. Samples were then analyzed for seven standard water quality parameters (i.e., pH, electric conductivity (EC), turbidity, chloride, calcium, magnesium, and nitrate). Patient data for waterborne diseases were also collected for the years 2012 and 2019 to relate the impact of groundwater quality on human health. Landsat satellite images were classified for the years 2012 and 2019 to observe landuse/landcover dynamics concerning groundwater quality. Results manifested a decrease in groundwater quality for the year 2019 compared to 2012 and were more highlighted in highly populated areas. The nitrate concentration level was found high in the vicinity of agricultural areas due to the excessive use of nitrogenous fertilizers and pesticides, and thus the methemoglobinemia patients ratio increased by 14% (48–62% for the year 2012 and 2019, respectively). Besides, Urinary Tract Infections, Peptic Ulcer, and Dental Caries diseases increased due to the high calcium and magnesium concentration. The overall results indicate that anthropogenic activities were the main driver of Spatio-temporal variability in groundwater quality of the study area. The study could help district health administration understand groundwater quality trends, make appropriate site-specific policies, and formulate future health regulations.

Crop yield prediction before the harvest is crucial for food security, grain trade, and policy making. Previously, several machine learning methods have been applied to predict crop yield using different types of variables. In this study, we propose using the Geographically Weighted Random Forest Regression (GWRFR) approach to improve crop yield prediction at the county level in the US Corn Belt. We trained the GWRFR and five other popular machine learning algorithms (Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), and Random Forest Regression (RFR)) with the following different sets of features: (1) full length features; (2) vegetation indices; (3) gross primary production (GPP); (4) climate data; and (5) soil data. We compared the results of the GWRFR with those of the other five models. The results show that the GWRFR with full length features (R² = 0.90 and RMSE = 0.764 MT/ha) outperforms other machine learning algorithms. For individual categories of features such as GPP, vegetation indices, climate, and soil features, the GWRFR also outperforms other models. The Moran’s I value of the residuals generated by GWRFR is smaller than that of other models, which shows that GWRFR can better address the spatial non-stationarity issue. The proposed method in this article can also be potentially used to improve yield prediction for other types of crops in other regions.

The growing population and the impacts of climate change present a major challenge to forests, which play a crucial role in regulating the carbon cycle. Pakistan, as a Kyoto Protocol signatory, has implemented afforestation initiatives such as the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government’s Billion Tree Afforestation Project (BTAP). Quantifying the environmental impacts of such initiatives is very important; however, carbon pool data for BTAP plantation regions remain unavailable and are underexplored. This study aims to quantify aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon sequestration potential (CSP) in the BTAP plantation regions using remote sensing and field data. Random sampling of 310 circular plots (17.84 m radius) provided measurements for tree height and diameter, from which AGB was calculated using allometric equations. Remote sensing data from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, combined with polarization rasters and vegetation indices, were used to train and evaluate multiple regression models including multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest regression (RFR). The RFR model outperformed the others (R² = 0.766) when using combined optical and radar data, yielding a mean AGB of 4.77 t/ha, carbon stock of 2.24 t/ha, and CO₂ equivalent of 10.36 t/ha. For BTAP plantations, the total biomass reached 1.19 million tons, with 2.06 million tons of CO₂ equivalent sequestered, corresponding to an annual sequestration of 0.47 tC/ha/yr and a potential of 99.18 ± 15 tC/ha. This research introduces innovative predictive models and a comprehensive carbon assessment framework for afforestation projects, providing critical insights for policymakers and climate change mitigation efforts.