Global increasing carbon emissions have triggered a series of environmental problems and greatly affected the production and living of human beings. This study estimated carbon emissions from land use change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1990–2020 with the carbon emission model and explored major influencing factors of carbon emissions with the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. The results suggested that the cropland decreased most significantly, while the built-up area increased significantly due to accelerated urbanization. The total carbon emissions in the study area increased remarkably from 112.86 million tons in 1990 to 525.30 million tons in 2020, and the built-up area was the main carbon source, of which the carbon emissions increased by 370.37%. Forest land accounted for 83.58–89.56% of the total carbon absorption but still failed to offset the carbon emission of the built-up area. Carbon emissions were influenced by various factors, and the results of this study suggested that the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita contributed most to the increase of carbon emissions in the study area, resulting in a cumulative increase of carbon emissions by 9.48 million tons, followed by the land use structure, carbon emission intensity per unit of land, and population size. By contrast, the land use intensity per unit of GDP had a restraining effect on carbon emissions, making the cumulative carbon emissions decrease by 103.26 million tons. This study accurately revealed the variation of net carbon emissions from land use change and the effects of influencing factors of carbon emissions from land use change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which can provide a firm scientific basis for improving the regional land use planning and for promoting the low-carbon economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Carbon sink enhancement is of great significance to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study firstly estimated the carbon sink in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region using the carbon absorption coefficient method. Then, this study explored the differentiation of carbon sink enhancement potential with a carbon sink–economic carrying capacity index matrix based on carbon sink carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity under the baseline scenario and target scenario of land use. The results suggested there was a remarkable differentiation in total carbon sink in the study area, reaching 2,056,400 and 1,528,300 tons in Chengde and Zhangjiakou and being below 500,000 tons in Langfang and Hengshui, while carbon sink per unit land area reached 0.66 ton/ha in Qinhuangdao and only 0.28 t/ha in Tianjin under the baseline scenario. Increasing area and optimizing spatial distribution of arable land, garden land, and forest, which made the greatest contribution to total carbon sinks, is an important way of enhancing regional carbon sinks. A hypothetical benchmark city can be constructed according to Qinhuangdao and Beijing, in comparison with which there is potential for carbon sink enhancement by improving carbon sink capacity in Beijing, promoting economic carrying capacity in Qinhuangdao, and improving both in the other cities in the study area.

To enhance ecosystem services (ESs) benefits and promote ecological–economic–sociologic sustainability in highly urbanized regions such as the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, it is essential to assess the dynamic changes in ESs within these regions from a functional zoning perspective and to explore the interactions between ESs. This research delved into how ESs change over space and time, using land-use projections for 2035 based on Natural Development (ND), Ecological Protection (EP), Economic Construction (EC) scenarios. This study also took a close look at the interplay of these ESs across BTH and its five distinct functional zones: the Bashang Plateau Ecological Protection Zone (BS), the Northwestern Ecological Conservation Zone (ST), the Central Core Functional Zone (HX), the Southern Functional Expansion Zone (TZ), and the Eastern Coastal Development Zone (BH). We utilize the Multiple Ecosystem Service Landscape Index (MESLI) to assess the capacity to supply multiple ESs. Key results include the following: (1) Projected land-use changes for 2035 scenarios consistently show cropland and grassland declining, while forest and urbanland expand, though the magnitude of change varies by scenario. (2) Habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation displayed a “high northwest–low southeast” gradient, opposite to water yield. The average MESLI value declined in all scenarios relative to 2020, with the highest value under the EP scenario. (3) Synergies prevailed between habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation, while trade-offs occurred with water yield. These relationships varied spatially—for instance, habitat quality and soil conservation were weakly synergistic in the BS but showed weak trade-offs in the HX. These insights can inform management strategies in other rapidly urbanizing regions.