Grasslands occupy nearly three quarters of the land surface of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau (QTP) and play a critical role in regulating the ecological functions of the QTP. Ongoing climate change and human interference have greatly affected grasslands on the QTP. Differentiating human-induced and climate-driven vegetation changes is vital for both ecological understanding and the management of husbandry. In this study, we employed statistical analysis of annual records, various sources of remote sensing data, and an ecosystem process model to calculate the relative contribution of climate and human activities to vegetation vigor on the QTP. The temperature, precipitation and the intensity and spatial pattern of livestock grazing differed between the periods prior to and after the year 2000, which led to different vegetation dynamics. Overall, increased temperature and enhanced precipitation favored vegetation growth. However, their combined effects exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, increased temperature restrained vegetation growth in dry steppe regions during a period of slightly increasing precipitation from 1986 to 2000 and in meadow regions during a period of precipitation decline during 2000–2011, thereby making precipitation a dominant factor. An increase in precipitation tended to enhance vegetation growth in wet meadow regions during warm periods, and temperature was the limiting factor in Tibet during dry periods. The dominant role played by climate and human activities differed with location and targeted time period. Areas dominated by human activities are much smaller than those dominated by climate. The effects of grazing on grassland pasture were more obvious under unfavorable climate conditions than under suitable ones.

Climate warming strongly influences reproductive phenology of plants in alpine and Arctic ecosystems. Here, we focus on phenological shifts caused by experimental warming in a typical alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Under soil water stress caused by warming, most plants in the alpine meadow advanced or delayed their reproductive events to be aligned with the timing of peak rainfall. As a result, warming significantly increased the temporal overlap among reproductive stages of early- and late-flowering species. In addition, we found that some species, for example the late-flowering species, were unable to produce flowers and fruits under warming with failed monsoon rains. The potentially warmer- and drier-growing seasons under climate change may similarly shift the phenological patterns and change species composition of these alpine systems.