The world has entered a compound risk era with multiple crises, and the adverse impact of trade friction and extreme weather disasters on China’s barley import has become increasingly prominent. In this context, this study uses superimposed epoch analysis and partial equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of extreme weather disasters in China’s major barley-exporting countries on China’s barley industry in the course of China–Australia trade friction. The results show that: (1) extreme weather disaster caused barley production in France and Canada to decrease by 7.95% and 18.36% respectively; (2) when the two external shocks occur at the same time, China’s barley import volume tends to decline compared with the basic scenario, the import price rises sharply, there are certain trade-diverting effects in barley import, and China’s imports from countries not affected by extreme weather disasters will increase to a certain extent; (3) China’s barley production remains at a low rate of growth and is vulnerable to external shocks, facing certain import risks. This study provides important policy implications for preventing import risks and ensuring the sufficient supply of domestic barley.

The high concentration of China’s barley import sources determines that China’s barley import trade is vulnerable to the impact of tariff policy adjustment. In particular, in 2020, China implemented anti-dumping and anti-subsidy policies against Australia, the largest source of barley imports. Therefore, whether China’s barley import trade will face import risks due to the adjustment of tariff policy has become a question worth discussing. Based on the above background, this study uses the partial equilibrium model to explore the impact of China’s adjustment of tariff policy on imported barley from Australia on China’s barley industry under the changing trade relations between China and Australia. Through analyzing the feasibility of developing domestic barley industry and expanding barley import sources, further explore strategies to deal with barley import trade risks. The results show that: Under the three import tariff adjustment simulations, the total import volume of China’s barley shows a downward trend, and the import price increases to varying degrees. However, the relatively small increase in domestic production suggests that the domestic barley market is less able to cope with the risk of a sharp drop in imports. At the same time, affected by the adjustment of tariff policy, some Chinese consumer demand is difficult to satisfy. China can deal with trade risks by implementing an import diversification strategy.