Wildlife dispersal directly influences population expansion patterns, and may have indirect effects on the spread of wildlife diseases. Despite its importance to conservation, little is known about dispersal for several species. Dispersal processes in expanding wolf (Canis lupus) populations in Europe is not well documented. Documenting the natural dispersal pattern of the expanding wolf population in the Alps might help understanding the overall population dynamics and identifying diseases that might be connected with the process. We documented 55 natural dispersal events of the expanding Italian wolf alpine population over a 20-year period through the use of non-invasive genetic sampling. We examined a 16-locus microsatellite DNA dataset of 2857 wolf samples mainly collected in the Western Alps. From this, we identified 915 individuals, recaptured 387 (42.3%) of individuals, documenting 55 dispersal events. On average, the minimum straight dispersal distance was 65.8 km (±67.7 km), from 7.7 km to 517.2 km. We discussed the potential implications for maintaining genetic diversity of the population and for wildlife diseases spreading.

Wolves have large spatial requirements and their expansion in Europe is occurring over national boundaries, hence the need to develop monitoring programs at the population level. Wolves in the Alps are defined as a functional population and management unit. The range of this wolf Alpine population now covers seven countries: Italy, France, Austria, Switzerland, Slovenia, Liechtenstein and Germany, making the development of a joint and coordinated monitoring program particularly challenging. In the framework of the Wolf Alpine Group (WAG), researchers developed uniform criteria for the assessment and interpretation of field data collected in the frame of different national monitoring programs. This standardization allowed for data comparability across borders and the joint evaluation of distribution and consistency at the population level. We documented the increase in the number of wolf reproductive units (packs and pairs) over 21 years, from 1 in 1993–1994 up to 243 units in 2020–2021, and examined the pattern of expansion over the Alps. This long-term and large-scale approach is a successful example of transboundary monitoring of a large carnivore population that, despite administrative fragmentation, provides robust indexes of population size and distribution that are of relevance for wolf conservation and management at the transnational Alpine scale.

Dynamic occupancy models are fundamental for understanding complex species recolonisation processes, as they allow the assessment of both colonisation and persistence probabilities over time. Using a dynamic occupancy model and a large‐scale multi‐year dataset on wolf presence collected in the Italian alpine region between 2014 and 2020, we analysed temporal trends in wolf colonisation and persistence probabilities in relation to environmental factors, prey availability and human‐related characteristics. Our results demonstrate that wolf recolonisation is an ongoing and dynamic process in the Italian Alps, with colonisation probabilities increasing throughout the study period, particularly in the northeast of the study area. Although we detected a slight positive temporal trend in the effect of human density, wolves continue to preferentially colonise natural areas, despite a decreasing availability, as evidenced by the continued positive effects of forest cover, low natural vegetation and presence of wild ungulates. Persistence probabilities remained relatively high and constant on average, but we noticed an increasingly negative effect of the presence of livestock pastures and densely populated areas. On the other hand, we noticed an increasingly positive effect of covariates associated with natural areas, such as forest cover, low natural vegetation and wild ungulate richness. This resulted in an increasingly contrasted spatial pattern in persistence probability throughout the region, likely reflecting conflict zones where wolves attempt to establish but struggle to survive. Overall, our study aligns with trends observed in other wolf populations across Europe, showing an expansion into new areas with different characteristics, highlighting potential areas of emerging conflict that warrant continued targeted monitoring. These patterns offer valuable insights for wolf conservation and management in human‐dominated landscapes.