Duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is the time from manifestation of the first psychotic symptom to initiation of adequate treatment. It has been postulated that a longer DUP leads to a poorer prognosis. If so, outcome might be improved through earlier detection and treatment. To establish whether DUP is associated with prognosis and to determine whether any association is explained by confounding with premorbid adjustment. The CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health), EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsychLIT databases were searched from their inception dates to May 2004. Eligible studies reported the relationship between DUP and outcome in prospective cohorts recruited during their first episode of psychosis. Twenty-six eligible studies involving 4490 participants were identified from 11 458 abstracts, each screened by 2 reviewers. Data were extracted independently and were checked by double entry. Sensitivity analyses were conducted excluding studies that had follow-up rates of less than 80%, included affective psychoses, or did not use a standardized assessment of DUP. Independent meta-analyses were conducted of correlational data and of data derived from comparisons of long and short DUP groups. Most data were correlational, and these showed a significant association between DUP and several outcomes at 6 and 12 months (including total symptoms, depression/anxiety, negative symptoms, overall functioning, positive symptoms, and social functioning). Long vs short DUP data showed an association between longer DUP and worse outcome at 6 months in terms of total symptoms, overall functioning, positive symptoms, and quality of life. Patients with a long DUP were significantly less likely to achieve remission. The observed association between DUP and outcome was not explained by premorbid adjustment. There is convincing evidence of a modest association between DUP and outcome, which supports the case for clinical trials that examine the effect of reducing DUP.

We conducted a systematic review of incidence rates in England over a sixty-year period to determine the extent to which rates varied along accepted (age, sex) and less-accepted epidemiological gradients (ethnicity, migration and place of birth and upbringing, time). To determine variation in incidence of several psychotic disorders as above. Published and grey literature searches (MEDLINE, PSycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, ASSIA, HMIC), and identification of unpublished data through bibliographic searches and author communication. Published 1950–2009; conducted wholly or partially in England; original data on incidence of non-organic adult-onset psychosis or one or more factor(s) pertaining to incidence. People, 16–64 years, with first -onset psychosis, including non-affective psychoses, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, psychotic depression and substance-induced psychosis. Title, abstract and full-text review by two independent raters to identify suitable citations. Data were extracted to a standardized extraction form. Descriptive appraisals of variation in rates, including tables and forest plots, and where suitable, random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions to test specific hypotheses; rate heterogeneity was assessed by the I²-statistic. 83 citations met inclusion. Pooled incidence of all psychoses (N = 9) was 31.7 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI: 24.6–40.9), 23.2 (95%CI: 18.3–29.5) for non-affective psychoses (N = 8), 15.2 (95%CI: 11.9–19.5) for schizophrenia (N = 15) and 12.4 (95%CI: 9.0–17.1) for affective psychoses (N = 7). This masked rate heterogeneity (I²: 0.54–0.97), possibly explained by socio-environmental factors; our review confirmed (via meta-regression) the typical age-sex interaction in psychosis risk, including secondary peak onset in women after 45 years. Rates of most disorders were elevated in several ethnic minority groups compared with the white (British) population. For example, for schizophrenia: black Caribbean (pooled RR: 5.6; 95%CI: 3.4–9.2; N = 5), black African (pooled RR: 4.7; 95%CI: 3.3–6.8; N = 5) and South Asian groups in England (pooled RR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.3–4.5; N = 3). We found no evidence to support an overall change in the incidence of psychotic disorder over time, though diagnostic shifts (away from schizophrenia) were reported. Incidence studies were predominantly cross-sectional, limiting causal inference. Heterogeneity, while evidencing important variation, suggested pooled estimates require interpretation alongside our descriptive systematic results. Incidence of psychotic disorders varied markedly by age, sex, place and migration status/ethnicity. Stable incidence over time, together with a robust socio-environmental epidemiology, provides a platform for developing prediction models for health service planning.

Objective To describe long term outcomes associated with externalising behaviour in adolescence, defined in this study as conduct problems reported by a teacher, in a population based sample. Design Longitudinal study from age 13-53. Setting The Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (the British 1946 birth cohort). Participants 3652 survey members assessed by their teachers for symptoms of externalising behaviour at age 13 and 15. Main outcome measures Mental disorder, alcohol abuse, relationship difficulties, highest level of education, social class, unemployment, and financial difficulties at ages 36-53. Results 348 adolescents were identified with severe externalising behaviour, 1051 with mild externalising behaviour, and 2253 with no externalising behaviour. All negative outcomes measured in adulthood were more common in those with severe or mild externalising behaviour in adolescence, as rated by teachers, compared with those with no externalising behaviour. Adolescents with severe externalising behaviour were more likely to leave school without any qualifications (65.2%; adjusted odds ratio 4.0, 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 5.5), as were those with mild externalising behaviour (52.2%; 2.3, 1.9 to 2.8), compared with those with no externalising behaviour (30.8%). On a composite measure of global adversity throughout adulthood that included mental health, family life and relationships, and educational and economic problems, those with severe externalising behaviour scored significantly higher (40.1% in top quarter), as did those with mild externalising behaviour (28.3%), compared with those with no externalising behaviour (17.0%). Conclusions Adolescents who exhibit externalising behaviour experience multiple social and health impairments that adversely affect them, their families, and society throughout adult life.

Background: Outcome measures for mental health services need to adopt a service-user recovery focus.Aims: To develop and validate a 10- and 20-item self-report recovery-focused quality of life outcome measure named Recovering Quality of Life (ReQoL).Method: Qualitative methods for item development and initial testing, and quantitative methods for item reduction and scale construction were used. Data from >6500 service users were factor analysed and item response theory models employed to inform item selection. The measures were tested for reliability, validity and responsiveness.Results: ReQoL-10 and ReQoL-20 contain positively and negatively worded items covering seven themes: activity, hope, belonging and relationships, self-perception, well-being, autonomy, and physical health. Both versions achieved acceptable internal consistency, test–retest reliability (>0.85), known-group differences, convergence with related measures, and were responsive over time (standardised response mean (SRM) > 0.4). They performed marginally better than the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale and markedly better than the EQ-5D.Conclusions: Both versions are appropriate for measuring service-user recovery-focused quality of life outcomes.Declaration of interest: M.B. and J.Co. were members of the research group that developed the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation (CORE) outcome measures.

Background: Studies of the long-term course and outcome of psychoses tend to focus on cohorts of prevalent cases. Such studies bias samples towards those with poor outcomes, which may distort our understanding of prognosis. Long-term follow-up studies of epidemiologically robust first-episode samples are rare.Method: AESOP-10 is a 10-year follow-up study of 557 individuals with a first episode of psychosis initially identified in two areas in the UK (South East London and Nottingham). Detailed information was collated on course and outcome in three domains (clinical, social and service use) from case records, informants and follow-up interviews.Results: At follow-up, of 532 incident cases identified, at baseline 37 (7%) had died, 29 (6%) had emigrated and eight (2%) were excluded. Of the remaining 458, 412 (90%) were traced and some information on follow-up was collated for 387 (85%). Most cases (265, 77%) experienced at least one period of sustained remission; at follow-up, 141 (46%) had been symptom free for at least 2 years. A majority (208, 72%) of cases had been employed for less than 25% of the follow-up period. The median number of hospital admissions, including at first presentation, was 2 [interquartile range (IQR) 1–4]; a majority (299, 88%) were admitted a least once and a minority (21, 6%) had 10 or more admissions. Overall, outcomes were worse for those with a non-affective diagnosis, for men and for those from South East London.Conclusions: Sustained periods of symptom remission are usual following first presentation to mental health services for psychosis, including for those with a non-affective disorder; almost half recover.