Cancer Waiting Time targets have been integrated into successive cancer strategies as indicators of cancer care quality in England. These targets are reported in national statistics for all cancers combined, but there is mixed evidence of their benefits and it is unclear if meeting Cancer Waiting Time targets, as currently defined and published, is associated with improved survival for individual patients, and thus if survival is a good metric for judging the utility of the targets. We used individually-linked data from the National Cancer Waiting Times Monitoring Dataset (CWT), the cancer registry and other routinely collected datasets. The study population consisted of all adult patients diagnosed in England (2009–2013) with colorectal (164,890), lung (171,208) or ovarian (24,545) cancer, of whom 82%, 76%, and 77%, respectively, had a CWT matching record. The main outcome was one-year net survival for all matched patients by target attainment (‘met/not met’). The time to each type of treatment for the 31-day and 62-day targets was estimated using multivariable analyses, adjusting for age, sex, tumour stage and deprivation. The two-week wait (TWW) from GP referral to specialist consultation and 31-day target from decision to treat to start of treatment were met for more than 95% of patients, but the 62-day target from GP referral to start of treatment was missed more often. There was little evidence of an association between meeting the TWW target and one-year net survival, but for the 31-day and 62-day targets, survival was worse for those for whom the targets were met (e.g. colorectal cancer: survival 89.1% (95%CI 88.9–89.4) for patients with 31-day target met, 96.9% (95%CI 96.1–91.7) for patients for whom it was not met). Time-to-treatment analyses showed that treatments recorded as palliative were given earlier in time, than treatments with potentially curative intent. There are possible limitations in the accuracy of the categorisation of treatment variables which do not allow for fully distinguishing, for example, between curative and palliative intent; and it is difficult in these data to assess the appropriateness of treatment by stage. These limitations in the nature of the data do not affect the survival estimates found, but do mean that it is not possible to separate those patients for whom the times between referral, decision to treat and start of treatment could actually have an impact on the clinical outcomes. This means that the use of these survival measures to evaluate the targets would be misleading. Based on these individually-linked data, and for the cancers we looked at, we did not find that Cancer Waiting Time targets being met translates into improved one-year survival. Patients may benefit psychologically from limited waits which encourage timely treatment, but one-year survival is not a useful measure for evaluating Trust performance with regards to Cancer Waiting Time targets, which are not currently stratified by stage or treatment type. As such, the current composition of the data means target compliance needs further evaluation before being used for the assessment of clinical outcomes.

Background: The DNA-damage immune-response (DDIR) signature is an immune-driven gene expression signature retrospectively validated as predicting response to anthracycline-based therapy. This feasibility study prospectively evaluates the use of this assay to predict neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in early breast cancer. Methods: This feasibility study assessed the integration of a novel biomarker into clinical workflows. Tumour samples were collected from patients receiving standard of care neoadjuvant chemotherapy (FEC + /−taxane and anti-HER2 therapy as appropriate) at baseline, mid- and post-chemotherapy. Baseline DDIR signature scores were correlated with pathological treatment response. RNA sequencing was used to assess chemotherapy/response-related changes in biologically linked gene signatures. Results: DDIR signature reports were available within 14 days for 97.8% of 46 patients (13 TNBC, 16 HER2 + ve, 27 ER + HER2-ve). Positive scores predicted response to treatment (odds ratio 4.67 for RCB 0-1 disease (95% CI 1.13–15.09, P = 0.032)). DDIR positivity correlated with immune infiltration and upregulated immune-checkpoint gene expression. Conclusions: This study validates the DDIR signature as predictive of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy which can be integrated into clinical workflows, potentially identifying a subgroup with high sensitivity to anthracycline chemotherapy. Transcriptomic data suggest induction with anthracycline-containing regimens in immune restricted, “cold” tumours may be effective for immune priming. Trial registration: Not applicable (non-interventional study). CRUK Internal Database Number 14232.

Stage is a key predictor of cancer survival. Complete cancer staging is vital for understanding outcomes at population level and monitoring the efficacy of early diagnosis initiatives. Cancer registries usually collect details of the disease extent but staging information may be missing because a stage was never assigned to a patient or because it was not included in cancer registration records. Missing stage information introduce methodological difficulties for analysis and interpretation of results. We describe the associations between missing stage and socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed with colon, lung or breast cancer in England in 2013. We assess how these associations change when completeness is high, and administrative issues are assumed to be minimal. We estimate the amount of avoidable missing stage data if high levels of completeness reached by some Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs), were achieved nationally. Individual cancer records were retrieved from the National Cancer Registration and linked to the Routes to Diagnosis and Hospital Episode Statistics datasets to obtain additional clinical information. We used multivariable beta binomial regression models to estimate the strength of the association between socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patients and missing stage and to derive the amount of avoidable missing stage. Multivariable modelling showed that old age was associated with missing stage irrespective of the cancer site and independent of comorbidity score, short-term mortality and patient characteristics. This remained true for patients in the CCGs with high completeness. Applying the results from these CCGs to the whole cohort showed that approximately 70% of missing stage information was potentially avoidable. Missing stage was more frequent in older patients, including those residing in CCGs with high completeness. This disadvantage for older patients was not explained fully by the presence of comorbidity. A substantial gain in completeness could have been achieved if administrative practices were improved to the level of the highest performing areas. Reasons for missing stage information should be carefully assessed before any study, and potential distortions introduced by how missing stage is handled should be considered in order to draw the most correct inference from available statistics.

Background Deprivation-specific life tables have been in use for some time, but health outcomes are also known to vary by ethnicity over and above deprivation. The mortality experiences of ethnic groups are little studied in the UK, however, because ethnicity is not captured on death certificates. Methods Population data for all Output Areas (OAs) in England and Wales were stratified by age-group, sex and ethnic proportion, and matched to the deaths counts in that OA from 2000 to 2002. We modelled the relationship between mortality, age, deprivation and ethnic proportion. We predicted mortality rates for an area that contained the maximum proportion of each ethnic group reported in any area in England and Wales, using a generalised linear model with a Poisson distribution adjusted for deprivation. Results After adjustment, Asian and White life expectancies between 1 and 80 years were very similar. Black men and women had lower life expectancies: men by 4 years and women by around 1.5 years. The Asian population had the lowest mortality of all groups over age 45 in women and over 50 in men, whereas the Black population had the highest rates throughout, except in girls under 15. Conclusions We adopted a novel ecological method of constructing ethnic-majority life tables, adjusted for deprivation. There is still diversity within these three broad ethnic groups, but our data show important residual differences in mortality for Black men and women. These ethnic life tables can be used to inform public health planning and correctly account for background mortality in ethnic subgroups of the population.

Background: Social inequalities in breast cancer survival are smaller when the cancer is screen-detected. We examined survival from screen-detected and non screen-detected breast cancer by ethnicity and deprivation. Methods: Cancer registry data for 20 283 women aged 50–70 years, diagnosed between 1989–2011 and invited for screening, were linked with screening and ethnicity data. We examined Asian, Black and White groups, less deprived and middle/more deprived women. Net survival was estimated using ethnic- and deprivation-specific life tables. Estimates were corrected for lead-time bias and over-diagnosis. Results: Net survival varied by screening history. No significant differences in survival were found by ethnicity. Five-year net survival was 90.0% (95% CI, 89.3–90.8%) in less deprived groups and 86.7% (85.9–87.4%) among middle/more deprived women. Screening benefitted all ethnic and both deprivation groups. Whether screen-detected or not, more deprived women had significantly poorer outcomes: 5-year net survival was 78.0% (76.7–79.2%) for deprived women who were not screen-detected compared with 94.0% (93.1–95.1%) for less deprived women who were screen-detected. Conclusions: The three ethnic groups differed little in their breast cancer survival. Although screening confers a survival benefit to all, there are still wide disparities in survival by deprivation. More needs to be done to determine what underlies these differences and tackle them.

Background In the UK there has been an effort, through the National Awareness and Early Diagnosis Initiative (NAEDI), to increase early stage diagnoses and ultimately cancer survival. Encouraging early symptom presentation through awareness-raising activities in primary care is one method to achieve this goal. Understanding GPs’ views about this type of activity, however, is crucial prior to implementation. Aim To describe GPs’ attitudes to raising public awareness of gynaecological cancers, and their views about the potential impact on primary care services. Design and setting An online survey with a convenience sample recruited from 1860 UK general practices. Method An invitation was emailed to GPs via practice managers and included a weblink to a draft education leaflet and an online survey about the impact of sending a leaflet giving information about symptoms associated with gynaecological cancers to all women on GPs’ lists. Participants could offer additional free text comments which were coded using content analysis. Results A total of 621 GPs participated. Most (77%, 477) felt that raising awareness of cancers was important. Only half (50%, 308), however, indicated that they would distribute such a leaflet from their practice. Barriers to implementation included concerns about financial costs; emotional impact on patients; increased demand for appointments and diagnostic services, such as ultrasound. Conclusions GPs were generally positive about an intervention to improve patients’ awareness of gynaecological cancers, but had concerns about increasing rates of presentation. There is a need for research quantifying the benefits of earlier diagnosis against resource costs such as increased consultations, investigations, and referrals.