The airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and mitigate risks before accidents occur. However, existing methods for such efforts are limited. They rely on predefined criteria to identify risks, leaving emergent issues undetected. This paper presents a new method, cluster-based anomaly detection to detect abnormal flights, which can support domain experts in detecting anomalies and associated risks from routine airline operations. The new method, enabled by data from the flight data recorder, applies clustering techniques to detect abnormal flights of unique data patterns. Compared with existing methods, the new method no longer requires predefined criteria or domain knowledge. Tests were conducted using two sets of operational data consisting of 365 B777 flights and 25,519 A320 flights. The performance of cluster-based anomaly detection to detect abnormal flights was compared with those of multiple kernel anomaly detection, which is another data-driven anomaly detection algorithm in recent years, as well as with exceedance detection, which is the current method employed by the airline industry. Results showed that both cluster-based anomaly detection to detect abnormal flights and multiple kernel anomaly detection were able to identify operationally significant anomalies, surpassing the capability of exceedance detection. Cluster-based anomaly detection to detect abnormal flights performed better with continuous parameters, whereas multiple kernel anomaly detection was more sensitive toward discrete parameters.

Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep learning approach, Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) is proposed to forecast passenger flow in urban rail transit systems to incorporate these complex factors. We propose to use multiple graphs to encode the spatial and other heterogenous inter-station correlations. The temporal dynamics of the inter-station correlations are also modeled via the proposed multi-graph convolutional-recurrent neural network structure. Inflow and outflow of all stations can be collectively predicted with multiple time steps ahead via a sequence to sequence(seq2seq) architecture. The proposed method is applied to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow in Shenzhen Metro, China. The experimental results show that MGC-RNN outperforms the benchmark algorithms in terms of forecasting accuracy. Besides, it is found that the inter-station driven by network distance, network structure, and recent flow patterns are significant factors for passenger flow forecasting. Moreover, the architecture of LSTM-encoder-decoder can capture the temporal dependencies well. In general, the proposed framework could provide multiple views of passenger flow dynamics for fine prediction and exhibit a possibility for multi-source heterogeneous data fusion in the spatiotemporal forecast tasks.