The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.

Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50% is still insufficient to reverse the trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional differences suggest a slight net decrease of death rates in Northern European countries but high vulnerability of the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe areas. Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden.

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM₁₀), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and ozone (O₃) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75^th to the 99^th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM₁₀ was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m³, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O₃ concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/m³ were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m³ increment in PM₁₀ was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1^st and 99^th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O₃ across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM_2.5 and NO₂. Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.

Background: Exposure to fine airborne particulate matter [≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] has been associated with cardiovascular and hematologic effects, especially in older people with cardiovascular disease. Some epidemiologic studies suggest that adults with diabetes also may be a particularly susceptible population. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to analyze the short-term effects of ambient PM2.5 on markers of endothelial function in diabetic volunteers. Methods: We conducted a prospective panel study in 22 people with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chapel Hill, North Carolina (USA), from November 2004 to December 2005. We acquired daily measurements of PM2.5 and meteorologic data at central monitoring sites. On 4 consecutive days, we measured endothelial function by brachial artery ultrasound in all participants and by pulsewave measurements in a subgroup. Data were analyzed using additive mixed models with a random participant effect and adjusted for season, day of the week, and meteorology. Results: Flow-mediated dilatation decreased in association with PM2.5 during the first 24 hr, whereas small-artery elasticity index decreased with a delay of 1 and 3 days. These PM2.5-associated decrements in endothelial function were greater among participants with a high body mass index, high glycosylated hemoglobin A1c, low adiponectin, or the null polymorphism of glutathione S-transferase M1. However, high levels of myeloperoxidase on the examination day led to strongest effects on endothelial dysfunction. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that PM2.5 exposure may cause immediate endothelial dysfunction. Clinical characteristics associated with insulin resistance were associated with enhanced effects of PM on endothelial function. In addition, participants with greater oxidative potential seem to be more susceptible.