How detrimental is inflation to economic growth in South Africa? At what level? Motivated by the adoption of inflation targeting in many countries, the author of this paper sets out to empirically determine the threshold level of inflation in South Africa. Quarterly time-series data spanning the period 1980:Q2 to 2010:Q3 was adopted for this study. The threshold regression model developed by Khan and Senhadji (2001) was used in this study. The econometric technique that was used is the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which was re-estimated using the two-stage least squares instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) to check for robustness. The results show that the inflation threshold level occurs at 4%. At inflation levels below and up to 4%, there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and growth. The relationship becomes negative and significant when the inflation rate is above 4%. The tests of robustness support these findings.

This paper adopts the Toda-Yamamoto technique of causality in order to examine the direction of causality between employment and economic growth. This is to investigate whether the increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) translates into increased employment or not and vice versa, in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2012Q3. South Africa has been experiencing high and increased growth for the past decade, yet the rate of employment is not significantly high. Meanwhile, the objective of the government, since the first democratic election in 1994, was to increase economic growth along with a reduction in the unemployment rate (BMR, 2011). Although the economy has been experiencing significant success of increased economic growth, it performed poorly in the area of increased employment (BMR, 2011). This study thus seeks to answer the following questions: (1) does it mean that the increase in growth does not translate to the creation of more jobs and (2) is increased economic growth not as a result of increase in employment in South Africa? The results obtained shows that causality does not run from employment to economic growth in South Africa, as the null hypothesis was not rejected at all significant levels. However, Keynes General Theory holds for South Africa, where the empirical result showed that economic growth leads employment. These results support the criticism of ‘jobless growth’ against South Africa (Kumo, 2012). The paper suggests some policy recommendations for the improvement of employment.

This paper analyses the relationship between inflation and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa. This issue is important because the level beyond which the inflation rate affects financial development in sub-Saharan Africa is not known, despite the underdeveloped financial system in the region. This paper presents a model in which inflation is endogenously determined, and uses a dynamic panel threshold approach which takes this factor into consideration to ensure improved results. The pure cross-section method and non-dynamic panel threshold approaches were also utilised. Strong evidence of a negative impact of inflation on financial development is obtained, which increases with a rise in inflation. An average inflation threshold of about 5% is established, below which a positive impact on financial development is found. There is, however, a negative relationship beyond the observed threshold. The paper provides policy recommendations as to how authorities should contain inflation to facilitate financial sector development in the region.

Concerted effort to diversify Botswana economy, in recent years, has seen increased activity of major sectors, which includes higher reliance on electricity. The demand and consumption of electricity within the Botswana economy increased substantially from the 1980’s. However there have been shortfalls in the country’s electricity generation capacity causing increased reliance on imports from neighbouring countries especially South Africa. Given the importance of electricity in Botswana, this study examined the relationship between electricity and economic growth, employing bounds testing approach to co-integration. Results obtained confirmed the importance of electricity for Botswana’s economic growth. The result also passed a battery of diagnostic tests. This study recommends the need for energy policy reforms that will enable increased electricity production capacity.

The understanding of the terms of trade is essential as its worsening can cause severe disruptions in any economy. South Africa, as a developing nation and a net importer, coupled with its low contribution to the global export market, is not spared the effects of the volatility of export prices. It is therefore important to observe the effects of a negative shock in the commodity terms of trade on selected key macroeconomic variables. Using quarterly data from the period 1988: Q2 to 2019: Q3, the study adopted the Monte Carlo impulse response function and variance decomposition analyses to examine the path of a given variable that resulted from a negative shock in the terms of trade. The results showed that all the variables responded, as expected, to the shock in the commodity terms of trade, both in the short and long run, and that they all returned to stable states. The study further showed the importance of output growth, exchange rate and investment in explaining the commodity terms of trade decomposition. The study concludes by providing some policy recommendations.