Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30‐year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24‐hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large‐scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.

Most studies of African dust and North Atlantic climate have been limited to the short time period since the satellite era (1980 onward), precluding the examination of their relationship on longer time scales. Here a new dust dataset with the record extending back to the 1950s is used to show a multidecadal covariability of North Atlantic SST and aerosol, Sahel rainfall, and Atlantic hurricanes. When the North Atlantic Ocean was cold from the late 1960s to the early 1990s, the Sahel received less rainfall and the tropical North Atlantic experienced a high concentration of dust. The opposite was true when the North Atlantic Ocean was warm before the late 1960s and after the early 1990s. This suggests a novel mechanism for North Atlantic SST variability—a positive feedback between North Atlantic SST, African dust, and Sahel rainfall on multidecadal time scales. That is, a warm (cold) North Atlantic Ocean produces a wet (dry) condition in the Sahel and thus leads to low (high) concentration of dust in the tropical North Atlantic, which in turn warms (cools) the North Atlantic Ocean. An implication of this study is that coupled climate models need to be able to simulate this aerosol-related feedback in order to correctly simulate climate variability in the North Atlantic. Additionally, it is found that dust in the tropical North Atlantic varies inversely with the number of Atlantic hurricanes on multidecadal time scales because of the multidecadal variability of both direct and indirect influences of dust on vertical wind shear in the hurricane main development region.

This paper addresses the atmospheric and oceanic causes of the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic on the basis of direct observations. Data sets include up to 4 years (September 1997 to February 2002) of measurements from moored buoys of the Pilot Research Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), near‐surface drifting buoys, and a blended satellite in situ SST product. We analyze the mixed layer heat balance at eight PIRATA mooring locations and find that the seasonal cycles of latent heat loss and absorbed shortwave radiation are responsible for seasonal SST variability in the northwest basin (8°N–15°N along 38°W). Along the equator (10°W–35°W), contributions from latent heat loss are diminished, while horizontal temperature advection and vertical entrainment contribute significantly. Zonal temperature advection is especially important during boreal summer near the western edge of the cold tongue, while horizontal eddy temperature advection, which most likely results from tropical instability waves, opposes temperature advection by the mean flow. The dominant balance in the southeast (6°S–10°S along 10°W) is similar to that in the northwest, with both latent heat loss and absorbed solar radiation playing important roles.

The tropical Atlantic is home to multiple coupled climate variations covering a wide range of timescales and impacting societally relevant phenomena such as continental rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, oceanic biological productivity, and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Atlantic also connects the southern and northern branches of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and receives freshwater input from some of the world’s largest rivers. To address these diverse, unique, and interconnected research challenges, a rich network of ocean observations has developed, building on the backbone of the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). This network has evolved naturally over time and out of necessity in order to address the most important outstanding scientific questions and to improve predictions of tropical Atlantic severe weather and global climate variability and change. The tropical Atlantic observing system is motivated by goals to understand and better predict phenomena such as tropical Atlantic interannual to decadal variability and climate change; multidecadal variability and its links to the meridional overturning circulation; air-sea fluxes of CO ₂ and their implications for the fate of anthropogenic CO ₂ ; the Amazon River plume and its interactions with biogeochemistry, vertical mixing, and hurricanes; the highly productive eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling systems; and oceanic oxygen minimum zones, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Past success of the tropical Atlantic observing system is the result of an international commitment to sustained observations and scientific cooperation, a willingness to evolve with changing research and monitoring needs, and a desire to share data openly with the scientific community and operational centers. The observing system must continue to evolve in order to meet an expanding set of research priorities and operational challenges. This paper discusses the tropical Atlantic observing system, including emerging scientific questions that demand sustained ocean observations, the potential for further integration of the observing system, and the requirements for sustaining and enhancing the tropical Atlantic observing system.

Two decades of drifter and satellite data allow the authors to describe the seasonal evolution of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea, which reverses annually with the Indian monsoon winds. This study finds several features that advance current understanding. Most significantly, northward flow appears along the length of the western boundary, together with a weak anticyclone at 6°N (a precursor to the Great Whirl) as early as March or April, one or two months before the southwest monsoon winds. This circulation is driven by planetary waves, which are initiated by wind curl forcing during the previous southwest monsoon, leading the authors to speculate that there is an oceanic mechanism through which one monsoon may precondition the next. Second, the authors find that the eastward South Equatorial Counter Current (SECC) is present year-round, fed by the northward East African Coastal Current (EACC). During the southwest monsoon the EACC overshoots the equator and splits, feeding both northward into the Somali Current and eastward into the SECC by looping back across the equator. This retroflection of the EACC is what was previously known as the southern gyre. At the surface, this circulation is obscured by strong, locally wind-driven, cross-equatorial transport. The semiannual variability of the SECC is governed by Ekman pumping over the equatorial gyre. Finally, there is broad, strong eastward flow at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden throughout the southwest monsoon, coincident with alongshore winds and a switch in sign of the wind stress curl along the axis of the atmospheric monsoon jet.

Measurements from three long-term moored buoys are used to investigate the impact of barrier layer thickness (BLT) on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the central tropical North Atlantic Ocean. It is found that seasonal variations of the BLT exert a considerable influence on SST through their modulation of the vertical heat flux at the base of the mixed layer, estimated as the residual in the mixed layer heat balance. Cooling associated with this term is strongest when the barrier layer is thin and the vertical temperature gradient at the base of the mixed layer is strong. Conversely, thick barrier layers are associated with a significant reduction in the vertical temperature gradient at the base of the mixed layer, which suppresses the upward transfer of cooler water into the mixed layer. Forced ocean and coupled ocean–atmosphere models that do not properly simulate the barrier layer may have difficulty reproducing the observed seasonal cycle of SST in the tropical North Atlantic.