Background: The research aimed to investigate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and their determinants in a large European cohort of more than 60,000 health workers. Methods: A multicentric retrospective cohort study, involving 12 European centers, was carried out within the ORCHESTRA project, collecting data up to 18 November 2021 on fully vaccinated health workers. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections was investigated with its association with occupational and social–demographic characteristics (age, sex, job title, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, antibody titer levels, and time from the vaccination course completion). Results: Among 64,172 health workers from 12 European health centers, 797 breakthrough infections were observed (cumulative incidence of 1.2%). The primary analysis using individual data on 8 out of 12 centers showed that age and previous infection significantly modified breakthrough infection rates. In the meta-analysis of aggregated data from all centers, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and the standardized antibody titer were inversely related to the risk of breakthrough infection (p = 0.008 and p = 0.007, respectively). Conclusion: The inverse correlation of antibody titer with the risk of breakthrough infection supports the evidence that vaccination plays a primary role in infection prevention, especially in health workers. Cellular immunity, previous clinical conditions, and vaccination timing should be further investigated.

Previous studies assessing the antibody response (AbR) to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are limited by short follow-up, hampering the analysis of AbR kinetics. We present the ORCHESTRA SOT recipients cohort assessed for AbR at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), and within 3 ± 1 month (t2) after the first dose. We analyzed 1062 SOT patients (kidney, 63.7%; liver, 17.4%; heart, 16.7%; and lung, 2.5%) and 5045 health care workers (HCWs). The AbR rates in the SOTs and HCWs were 52.3% and 99.4%. The antibody levels were significantly higher in the HCWs than in the SOTs (p < 0.001). The kinetics showed an increase (p < 0.001) in antibody levels up to 76 days and a non-significant decrease after 118 days in the SOT recipients versus a decrease up to 76 days (p = 0.02) and a less pronounced decrease between 76 and 118 days (p = 0.04) in the HCWs. Upon multivariable analysis, liver transplant, ≥3 years from SOT, mRNA-1273, azathioprine, and longer time from t0 were associated with a positive AbR at t2. Older age, other comorbidities, mycophenolate, steroids, and impaired graft function were associated with lower AbR probability. Our results may be useful to optimize strategies of immune monitoring after COVID-19 vaccination and indications regarding timing for booster dosages calibrated on SOT patients’ characteristics.

Background: The effectiveness of the immunity provided by SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is an important public health issue. We analyzed the determinants of 12-month serology in a multicenter European cohort of vaccinated healthcare workers (HCW). Methods: We analyzed the sociodemographic characteristics and levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (IgG) in a cohort of 16,101 vaccinated HCW from eleven centers in Germany, Italy, Romania, Slovakia and Spain. Considering the skewness of the distribution, the serological levels were transformed using log or cubic standardization and normalized by dividing them by center-specific standard errors. We fitted center-specific multivariate regression models to estimate the cohort-specific relative risks (RR) of an increase of one standard deviation of log or cubic antibody level and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for different factors and combined them in random-effects meta-analyses. Results: We included 16,101 HCW in the analysis. A high antibody level was positively associated with age (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.00–1.08 per 10-year increase), previous infection (RR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.29–2.45) and use of Spikevax [Moderna] with combinations compared to Comirnaty [BioNTech/Pfizer] (RR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.97–1.19) and was negatively associated with the time since last vaccine (RR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.91–0.98 per 30-day increase). Conclusions: These results provide insight about vaccine-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2, an analysis of its determinants and quantification of the antibody decay trend with time since vaccination.

Purpose: Anti SARS-CoV-2 vaccination initially showed high effectiveness in preventing COVID-19. However, after the surge of variants of concern, the effectiveness dropped. Several studies investigated if this was related to the decrease of the humoral response over time; however, this issue is still unclear. The aim of this study was to understand whether SARS-CoV-2 anti-S IgG levels can be used to predict breakthrough infection risk and define the timing for further booster doses administration. Method: Within the framework of the ORCHESTRA Project, over 20,000 health workers from 11 European centers were enrolled since December 2020. We performed two Cox proportional hazards survival analyses regarding pre-Omicron (from January to July 2021) and Omicron (December 2021–May 2022) periods. The serological response was classified as high (above the 75th percentile), medium (25th-75th), or low (< 25th). Results: Seventy-four (0.33%) and 2122 (20%) health workers were infected during the first and second periods, respectively. Both Cox analyses showed that having high anti-S titer was linked to a significantly lower risk of infection as compared to having medium serological response [HR of high vs medium anti-S titer = 0.27 (95% CI 0.11–0.66) during the first phase, HR = 0.76 (95% CI 0.62–0.93) during the second phase]. Conclusion: Vaccine effectiveness wanes significantly after new variants surge, making anti-S titer unsuitable to predict optimal timing for further booster dose administration. Studies on other immunological indicators, such as cellular immunity, are therefore needed to better understand the mechanisms and duration of protection against breakthrough infection risk.

Introduction: Characterizing immunological response following COVID-19 vaccination is an important public health issue. The objectives of the present analysis were to investigate the proportion, level and the determinants of humoral response from 21 days to three months after the first dose in vaccinated healthcare workers (HCWs). Methods: We abstracted data on level of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike antibodies (IgG) and sociodemographic characteristics of 17,257 HCWs from public hospitals and public health authorities from three centers in Northern Italy who underwent COVID-19 vaccination (average 70.6 days after first dose). We fitted center-specific multivariate regression models and combined them using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: A humoral response was elicited in 99.3% of vaccinated HCW. Female sex, young age, and previous COVID-19 infection were predictors of post-vaccination antibody level, and a positive association was also detected with pre-vaccination serology level and with time between pre- and post-vaccination testing, while a decline of antibody level was suggested with time since vaccination. Conclusions: These results stress the importance of analyzing retrospective data collected via occupational health surveillance of HCWs during the COVID-19 epidemic and following vaccination. They need to be confirmed in larger series based on prospectively collected data.

Background: The persistence of antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination has public health relevance. We analyzed the determinants of quantitative serology at 9 months after vaccination in a multicenter cohort. Methods: We analyzed data on anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody levels at 9 months from the first dose of vaccinated HCW from eight centers in Italy, Germany, Spain, Romania and Slovakia. Serological levels were log-transformed to account for the skewness of the distribution and normalized by dividing them by center-specific standard errors. We fitted center-specific multivariate regression models to estimate the cohort-specific relative risks (RR) of an increase of one standard deviation of log antibody level and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), and combined them in random-effects meta-analyses. Finally, we conducted a trend analysis of 1 to 7 months’ serology within one cohort. Results: We included 20,216 HCW with up to two vaccine doses and showed that high antibody levels were associated with female sex (p = 0.01), age (RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.86–0.88 per 10-year increase), 10-day increase in time since last vaccine (RR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.97–0.98), previous infection (3.03, 95% CI = 2.92–3.13), two vaccine doses (RR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.09–1.36), use of Spikevax (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.39–1.64), Vaxzevria (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.44–0.73) or heterologous vaccination (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.12–1.57), compared to Comirnaty. The trend in the Bologna cohort, based on 3979 measurements, showed a decrease in mean standardized antibody level from 8.17 to 7.06 (1–7 months, p for trend 0.005). Conclusions: Our findings corroborate current knowledge on the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunity and declining trend with time.