Soil erosion triggered by water and wind pose a great threat to the sustainable development of Pakistan. In this study, a combination of geographic information systems (GISs) and machine learning approaches were used to predict soil water erosion rates. The Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) model was used to evaluate soil wind erosion, map erosion factors, and analyze the soil erosion rates for each land use type. Finally, the maps of soil water and wind erosion were spatially integrated to identify erosion risk regions and recommend land use management in Pakistan. According to our estimates, the Potohar Plateau and its surrounding regions were mostly impacted by water erosion and have a soil erosion rate of 2500–5000 t·km⁻²·a⁻¹; on the other hand, wind erosion predominated the Kharan Desert and the Thar Desert, with a soil erosion rate exceeding 15,000 t·km⁻²·a⁻¹. The Sulaiman and Kirthar Mountain Ranges were susceptible to wind–water compound erosion, which was more than 8000 t·km⁻²·a⁻¹. This study offers new perspectives on the geographic pattern of individual and integrated water–wind erosion threats in Pakistan and provides high-precision data and a scientific foundation for designing rational soil and water conservation practices.

The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, one of the areas with the most intense global warming, has seen substantial changes in vegetation cover. Based on the GIMMS NDVI3g and meteorological dataset from 1982 to 2015, this study evaluated the spatio-temporal variation in fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) by using linear regression analysis, standard deviation, correlation coefficient, and multiple linear regression residuals to explore its response mechanism to climate change and human activities. The findings showed that: (1) the FVC was progressively improved, with a linear trend of 0.003•10a⁻¹. (2) The largest proportion of the contribution to FVC change was found in the unchanged area (39.29%), followed by the obvious improvement (23.83%) and the mild improvement area (13.53%). (3) The impact of both climate change and human activities is dual in FVC changes, and human activities are increasing. (4) The FVC was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation, with a stronger correlation with temperature, and the climate trend was warm and humid. The findings of the study serve to understand the impacts of climate change and human activities on the dynamic changes in the FVC and provide a scientific foundation for ecological conservation and sustainable economic development in the PTP region.