KEYWORDS Cost of equity; CAPM; IFRS; Quality of accounting information; Brazil

Purpose: This research examines the superiority of analysts over random walk models in forecasting the results of publicly-traded Brazilian companies in the short and long term. Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their temporal and informational advantages. However, recent international studies call for a re-evaluation of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics, and primarily for long-term estimates, the superiority of analysts is not confirmed. Design/methodology/approach: This work evaluates the profit forecasting of analysts and simple and growth random walk models over the short and long term over 2010-2015 for publicly traded Brazilian companies, using the information available for the period with annual intervals. Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period.

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the occurrence of the decoy effect in stock investment decisions based on fundamental analysis.Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the decoy effect was investigated by applying two questionnaires, one of them with the presence of a decoy alternative, to a set of 224 respondents with knowledge of business fundamentals, simulating investment decisions in stocks of companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange. The data analysis was performed using the Fisher's exact test, Student's t-test and ANOVA. The research also aimed to detect a potential relationship between the variables gender, age, degree and professional experience with the type of decision made.Findings: The results pointed to the occurrence of the decoy effect when analysing the general response data. However, such evidence was not confirmed when the sample was analysed by classes (gender, course, age and professional experience). There is no statistical evidence that the decoy effect influences classes.Originality/value: The recent decoy effect literature is little explored in investment decision-making. This study is unique in examining the decoy effect in investment decisions in the Brazilian context.

The present study aims to analyse the relationship between fiscal and monetary credibility and the volatility of the Brazilian stock market index, Ibovespa. The results demonstrate that the greater the credibility of the target imposed by the Brazilian Central Bank, the more predictable and stable are the macroeconomic variables and the greater the confidence of economic agents in the Brazilian stock market. We can conclude that the greater the fiscal and monetary credibility, the better is the performance of the stock market.

This study examines how cumulative abnormal returns (CARs, the sum of abnormal returns over a period) and volatility behave around Bitcoin halving events, focusing on whether these patterns have evolved as the cryptocurrency market matures. Halvings are periodic events defined by Bitcoin’s algorithm, during which the reward—in the form of newly issued bitcoins—paid to miners for validating network transactions is reduced, impacting miners’ profitability and potentially influencing the asset’s price due to a decreased supply. To carry out the analysis, we collected data on returns and risk for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halving events and compared abnormal returns before and around the event, focusing on the 2020 and 2024 halvings. The results reveal significant shifts in Bitcoin’s price behavior within the event window, with an increased occurrence of abnormal returns in 2020 and 2024, alongside variations in average return, volatility, and maximum drawdown across all events. These findings suggest that Bitcoin’s returns and volatility during halvings are decreasing as the cryptocurrency market becomes more regulated and attracts greater participation from institutional investors and governments.