In this study, airborne laser scanning-based and traditional field-based survey methods for tree heights estimation are assessed by using one hundred felled trees as a reference dataset. Comparisons between remote sensing and field-based methods were applied to four circular permanent plots located in the western Italian Alps and established within the Alpine Space project NewFor. Remote sensing (Airborne Laser Scanning, ALS), traditional field-based (indirect measurement, IND), and direct measurement of felled trees (DIR) methods were compared by using summary statistics, linear regression models, and variation partitioning. Our results show that tree height estimates by Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) approximated to real heights (DIR) of felled trees. Considering the species separately, Larix decidua was the species that showed the smaller mean absolute difference (0.95 m) between remote sensing (ALS) and direct field (DIR) data, followed by Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris (1.13 m and 1.04 m, respectively). Our results cannot be generalized to ALS surveys with low pulses density (<5/m²) and with view angles far from zero (nadir). We observed that the tree heights estimation by laser scanner is closer to actual tree heights (DIR) than traditional field-based survey, and this was particularly valid for tall trees with conical shape crowns.

The synergic influence of land use and climate change on future forest dynamics is hard to disentangle, especially in human-dominated forest ecosystems. Forest gain in mountain ecosystems often creates different spatial–temporal patterns between upper and lower elevation belts. We analyzed land cover dynamics over the past 50 years and predicted Business as Usual future changes on an inner subalpine watershed by using land cover maps, derived from five aerial images, and several topographic, ecological, and anthropogenic predictors. We analyzed historical landscape patterns through transition matrices and landscape metrics and predicted future forest ecosystem change by integrating multi-layer perceptron and Markov chain models for short-term (2050) and long-term (2100) timespans. Below the maximum timberline elevation of the year 1965, the dominant forest dynamic was a gap-filling process through secondary succession at the expense of open areas leading to an increase of landscape homogeneity. At upper elevations, the main observed dynamic was the colonization of unvegetated soil through primary succession and timberline upward shift, with an increasing speed over the last years. Future predictions suggest a saturation of open areas in the lower part of the watershed and stronger forest gain at upper elevations. Our research suggests an increasing role of climate change over the last years and on future forest dynamics at a landscape scale.