Predictions of aflatoxin (AF) in grain at post-harvest can be useful for ensuring the safety of stored grain. Versicolorin (Ver) A, a precursor of AFB₁, can serve as an early indicator of AF contamination, even when AFs themselves are present at undetectable levels. In the current research, we developed a probabilistic model based on logistic regression and Ver A levels to estimate the risk of AF contamination in stored corn. Moisture content, aflatoxigenic fungal load, and initial and maximum values of Ver A in the first three sampling cycles were experimentally determined as the four important factors for the probabilistic model. Both internal and external model validations were shown to be high at 96.4% and 93.3%, respectively. For high-risk samples, a precise model was developed to predict the maximum period of safe storage, which can be useful for decision-making by the stakeholders in feed and food supply chain. Our findings provide a basis tool for establishing an early warning system for AF contamination in granaries, which can improve global food safety. Graphical Abstract Assay procedures of the molecular imprinted polymer based chemiluminescence method for determination of chloramphenicol

The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the predictive monitoring of aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) under granary conditions, since mycotoxin contamination of the stored grain represents an important issue. Using the storage test, we investigated the relationship between versicolorin A (Ver A, an intermediate in AFB₁ biosynthesis) levels and the levels of aflatoxigenic fungi, and their relationship with aflatoxin production. All samples, except for one, were found to be contaminated with aflatoxigenic fungi using PCR analyses, while their AFB₁ levels were not detectable before the storage test using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method with an LOD of 2 μg/kg. Aflatoxigenic fungi levels were analysed, as well as Ver A levels prior to the accumulation of AFB₁ (Levels were ≥5 μg/kg; the permissible levels of AFB₁ in corn intended for direct consumption are <5 μg/kg (EC)). Statistical analyses demonstrated that aflatoxin levels after both actual storage and safe storage (AFB₁˂5μg/kg) times are significantly correlated with the Ver A levels and the changes in Ver A levels (ΔVer A). Both high and variable Ver A levels were indicative of the vigorous metabolic activity of aflatoxigenic fungi. In contrast, steady Ver A levels showed that aflatoxin production by the fungi was not active. Monitoring Ver A levels and their changes may allow an earlier detection of harmful aflatoxin contamination in the stored grain. Additionally, the toxicity of Ver A should be further examined. The results of our study indicate that the monitoring of Ver A levels, even when the AFB₁ levels are very low, may increase the safety of grain consumption, especially considering Ver A toxicity.