Taxation serves as a vital lifeline for government revenue, directly contributing to national development and the welfare of its citizens. Ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of the tax collection process is essential for maintaining a sustainable economic framework. This study investigates (a) trends and patterns of direct tax collection, (b) the cost of tax collection, (c) the proportion of direct tax in total tax collection, and (d) the tax-to-GDP ratio in India. By utilizing a novel grey forecasting model (GM (1,1)), this study attempted to predict the future trends of India’s direct tax collections, through which it aims to provide a concurrent and accurate future outlook on tax revenue, ensuring resources are optimally allocated for the country’s growth. Results revealed that direct tax collection has consistently increased in the past two decades, and the proportion of direct tax in total tax has also improved significantly. On the contrary, the cost of tax collection has decreased regularly, indicating the efficiency of tax collection. Forecasting shows that the collection from direct tax is expected to reach INR 30.67 trillion in 2029–30, constituting around 54.41% of the total tax, leaving behind collections from indirect tax at a total of INR 25.70 trillion. Such findings offer insights that could enhance revenue management strategies with policy decisions relevant to economists, government, and other stakeholders to understand trends and the efficiency of direct tax collection in India.

A series of crises triggered over a decade may bring global recession, which may impact millions of investors, including countries teetering on the brink due to forex reserve shortages; this study addresses the significant financial event of a small nation declaring bankruptcy. Such events can have adverse consequences on the global economy, particularly affecting the stock market indices of the country’s trading partners. Our research investigates the impact of small nation bankruptcies on the stock market indices of connected importing and exporting partners. Focusing on the recent political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka, we analyze interactions between the Sri Lankan stock exchange and its key trading partners. Employing pairwise cointegration and the vector auto-regressive model-based Granger causal approach, our findings reveal cointegration among the stock markets in Germany, Italy, and Sri Lanka. Notably, the pre-crisis causal links between the Colombo Stock Exchange and other stock markets have dissolved. These insights hold valuable implications for understanding and preparing for similar circumstances in other South Asian economies grappling with forex shortages and rising inflation. Graphical abstract