How seedling mortality and browsing affects species composition of regenerating forests has been mostly studied on a small scale. Yet, large-scale analyses based on extensive data are essential for robust prediction of species composition in young forests. In this study, we used a dataset from a national inventory of young forests (1–4 metres in height) to investigate the species composition of young forests across Sweden. We found that most of the regenerated forest area (almost 90%) was planted with Norway spruce (southern Sweden) and Scots pine (northern Sweden). Regeneration of Norway spruce was generally relatively successful but as a consequence of seedling mortality and browsing, almost 40% of the area regenerated with Scots pine will probably not develop into pine-dominated stands. Thus, low survival of Scots pine seedlings and trees can profoundly change the trajectory of species composition of the young forest from what was originally intended, and a large proportion of the young stands may develop into mixtures of conifers and broadleaves. While such mixtures may benefit certain biodiversity and ecosystem services, a loss of Scots pine dominated stands may also have adverse impacts on the economic returns as well as pine-dependent biodiversity and recreational values.

Pre-commercial thinning (PCT) is a common measure in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) stands but the profitability of doing PCT and timing of PCT has not been fully investigated over a full rotation. Further, limited knowledge is available for mixed forest management compared to monocultures. In this study, different PCT strategies were tested to investigate the effect of PCT and timing of PCT on the production and profitability of Norway spruce monocultures and mixed Norway spruce–birch stands. A forest decision support system was used to simulate stand development during the whole rotation. Our study findings show that there is a positive effect of PCT on Norway spruce plantations’ long-term profitability but that the timing of PCT has little effect on profitability. However, site variation might influence the effect of PCT timing on the profitability of Norway spruce stands. Moreover, we also found that retaining 1000 Norway spruce ha⁻¹ and 1000 birch ha⁻¹ after PCT supports a mixture of Norway spruce and birch over a full rotation, with little or no economic loss compared to pure Norway spruce stands. Therefore, such a mixture can lead to profitable production while still providing other ecosystem services.