Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO) and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH₄, N₂O, CCl₃F (CFC-11), CCl₂F₂ (CFC-12), and CO₂) in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km) is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv). Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based) are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns) simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling compared to observations as a consequence of the overestimated vertical velocities in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. Moreover, the simulated tropical anomaly patterns of N₂O are in good agreement with observations. In the simulations, anomaly patterns of CH₄ and CFC-11 were found to be very similar to those of N₂O; for all long-lived tracers, positive anomalies are simulated because of the enhanced tropical upwelling in the easterly shear phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (Tonga) injected only small amount of SO₂ into the stratosphere, while our analyses of the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements show that a massive amount of water vapor was directly injected into the stratosphere by the Tonga eruption, which is probably due to its submarine volcanic activity. The Tonga eruption injected a total amount of 139 ± 8 Tg of water vapor into the stratosphere and resulted in an increase of 8.9 ± 0.5% in the global stratospheric water vapor. Analyses also show that the uppermost altitude impacted by Tonga reached the 1 hPa level (~47.6 km). Additionally, the maximum hydration region for increased water vapor is at 38–17 hPa (~22.2–27 km), where the water vapor mixing ratio increased by 6–8 ppmv during the three months after the Tonga eruption. The enhanced stratospheric water vapor has great potential to influence the global radiation budget as well as ozone loss.

The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) determines the transport and atmospheric lifetime of key radiatively active trace gases and further impacts surface climate through downward coupling. Here, we quantify the variability in the lower stratospheric BDC induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using satellite trace gas measurements and simulations with the Lagrangian chemistry transport model, CLaMS, driven by ERA-Interim and JRA-55 reanalyses. We show that despite discrepancies in the deseasonalized ozone (O₃) mixing ratios between CLaMS simulations and satellite observations, the patterns of changes in the lower stratospheric O₃ anomalies induced by ENSO agree remarkably well over the 2005–2016 period. Particularly during the most recent El Niño in 2015–2016, both satellite observations and CLaMS simulations show the largest negative tropical O₃ anomaly in the record. Regression analysis of different metrics of the BDC strength, including mean age of air, vertical velocity, residual circulation, and age spectrum, shows clear evidence of structural changes in the BDC in the lower stratosphere induced by El Niño, consistent with observed O₃ anomalies. These structural changes during El Niño include a weakening of the transition branch of the BDC between about 370 and 420 K (∼100–70 hPa) and equatorward of about 60^∘ and a strengthening of the shallow branch at the same latitudes and between about 420 and 500 K (∼70–30 hPa). The slowdown of the transition branch is due to an upward shift in the dissipation height of the large-scale and gravity waves, while the strengthening of the shallow branch results mainly from enhanced gravity wave breaking in the tropics–subtropics combined with enhanced planetary wave breaking at high latitudes. The strengthening of the shallow branch induces negative tropical O₃ anomalies due to enhanced tropical upwelling, while the weakening of the transition branch combined with enhanced downwelling due to the strengthening shallow branch leads to positive O₃ anomalies in the extratropical upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS). Our results suggest that a shift in the ENSO basic state toward more frequent El Niño-like conditions in a warmer future climate will substantially alter UTLS trace gas distributions due to these changes in the vertical structure of the stratospheric circulation.

An accelerating Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a robust signal of climate change in model predictions but has been questioned by trace gas observations. We analyse the stratospheric mean age of air and the full age spectrum as measures for the BDC and its trend. Age of air is calculated using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data to assess the robustness of the representation of the BDC in current generation meteorological reanalyses. We find that the climatological mean age significantly depends on the reanalysis, with JRA-55 showing the youngest and MERRA-2 the oldest mean age. Consideration of the age spectrum indicates that the older air for MERRA-2 is related to a stronger spectrum tail, which is likely associated with weaker tropical upwelling and stronger recirculation. Seasonality of stratospheric transport is robustly represented in reanalyses, with similar mean age variations and age spectrum peaks. Long-term changes from 1989 to 2015 turn out to be similar for the reanalyses with mainly decreasing mean age accompanied by a shift of the age spectrum peak towards shorter transit times, resembling the forced response in climate model simulations to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. For the shorter periods, 1989–2001 and 2002–2015, the age of air changes are less robust. Only ERA-Interim shows the hemispheric dipole pattern in age changes from 2002 to 2015 as viewed by recent satellite observations. Consequently, the representation of decadal variability of the BDC in current generation reanalyses appears less robust and is a major uncertainty of modelling the BDC.

Pure Lagrangian, i.e., trajectory-based transport models, take into account only the resolved advective part of transport. That means neither mixing processes between the air parcels (APs) nor unresolved subgrid-scale advective processes like convection are included. The Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS 1.0) extends this approach by including mixing between the Lagrangian APs parameterizing the small-scale isentropic mixing. To improve model representation of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), this approach was extended by taking into account parameterization of tropospheric mixing and unresolved convection in the recently published CLaMS 2.0 version. All three transport modes, i.e., isentropic and tropospheric mixing and the unresolved convection can be adjusted and optimized within the model. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of the model representation of tracers in the UTLS with respect to these three modes. For this reason, the CLaMS 2.0 version implemented within the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), CLaMS 2.0/MESSy, is applied with meteorology based on the ERA-Interim (EI) and ERA5 (E5) reanalyses with the same horizontal resolution (1.0×1.0 ^∘) but with 60 and 137 model levels for EI and E5, respectively. Comparisons with in situ observations are used to rate the degree of agreement between different model configurations and observations. Starting from pure advective runs as a reference and in agreement with CLaMS 1.0, we show that among the three processes considered, isentropic mixing dominates transport in the UTLS. Both the observed CO, O₃, N₂O, and CO₂ profiles and CO–O₃ correlations are clearly better reproduced in the model with isentropic mixing. The second most important transport process considered is convection which is only partially resolved in the vertical velocity fields provided by the analysis. This additional pathway of transport from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to the main convective outflow dominates the composition of air in the lower stratosphere relative to the contribution of the resolved transport. This transport happens mainly in the tropics and sub-tropics, and significantly rejuvenates the age of air in this region. By taking into account tropospheric mixing, weakest changes in tracer distributions without any clear improvements were found.

Stratospheric water vapor increases are expected in response to greenhouse gas-forced climate warming, and these changes act as a positive feedback to surface climate. Previous efforts at inferring trends from the 3–4 decade-long observational stratospheric water vapor record have yielded conflicting results. Here we show that a robust multi-decadal variation of water vapor concentrations exists in most parts of the stratosphere based on satellite observations and atmospheric model simulations, which clearly divides the past 40 years into two wet decades (1986–1997; 2010–2020) and one dry decade (1998–2009). This multi-decadal variation, especially pronounced in the lower to middle stratosphere and in the northern hemisphere, is associated with decadal temperature anomalies (±0.2 K) at the cold point tropopause and a hemispheric asymmetry in changes of the Brewer-Dobson circulation modulating methane oxidation. Multi-decadal variability must be taken into account when evaluating stratospheric water vapor trends over recent decades.