A new downscaling method has been developed to improve forecasts of near-surface temperature. This involves applying a correction to forecast temperatures to account for the difference in height between the terrain in the forecast model and the real terrain, using an estimate of the lapse rate of temperature. The strongest variations in lapse rate are found to occur overnight, being a function of cloud cover and geostrophic wind speed. These variables similarly influence the night time lapse rate in the UK Met Office Unified Model forecast at 4 km resolution. Therefore, a simple algorithm has been employed to estimate the lapse rate at a given location, based on forecast model temperature and elevation fields. The algorithm has a positive impact on performance in stable conditions, compared to assuming an adiabatic lapse rate at all times. © Crown Copyright 2010. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

This paper examines current understanding of the influence of orographic flow dynamics on the turbulent transport of momentum and scalar quantities above complex terrain. It highlights three key low-level orographic flow phenomena governed by gravity-wave dynamics: Foehn flow, atmospheric rotors and gravity-wave modulation of the stable boundary layer. Recent observations and numerical simulations are used to illustrate how these flows can cause significant departures from the turbulent fluxes, which occur over flat terrain. Orographically forced fluxes of heat, moisture and chemical constituents are currently unaccounted for in numerical models. Moreover, whilst turbulent orographic drag parameterisation schemes are available (in some models), these do not represent the large gravity-wave scales associated with foehn dynamics; nor do they account for the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and non-local turbulence advection observed in wave-rotor dynamics or the gravity waves, which modulate turbulence in the boundary layer. The implications for numerical models, which do not resolve these flows, and for the parametrisation schemes, which should account for the unresolved fluxes, are discussed. An overarching need is identified for improved understanding of the heterogeneity in sub-grid-scale processes, such as turbulent fluxes, associated with orographic flows, and to develop new physically-based approaches for parameterizing these processes.

Gusts represent the component of wind most likely to be associated with serious hazards and structural damage, representing short-lived extremes within the spectrum of wind variation. Of interest both for short range forecasting and for climatological and risk studies, this is also reflected in the variety of methods used to predict gusts based on various static and dynamical factors of the landscape and atmosphere. The evolution of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models has delivered huge benefits from increasingly accurate forecasts of mean near-surface wind, with which gusts broadly scale. Techniques for forecasting gusts rely on parametrizations based on a physical understanding of boundary layer turbulence, applied to NWP model fields, or statistical models and machine learning approaches trained using observations, each of which brings advantages and disadvantages. Major shifts in the nature of the information available from NWP models are underway with the advent of ever-finer resolution and ensembles increasingly employed at the regional scale. Increases in the resolution of operational NWP models mean that phenomena traditionally posing a challenge for gust forecasting, such as convective cells, sting jets and mountain lee waves may now be at least partially represented in the model fields. This advance brings with it significant new questions and challenges, such as concerning: the ability of traditional gust prediction formulations to continue to perform as phenomena associated with gusty conditions become increasingly resolved; the extent to which differences in the behaviour of turbulence associated with each phenomenon need to be accommodated in future gust prediction methods. A similar challenge emerges from the increasing, but still partial resolution of terrain detail in NWP models; the speed-up of the mean wind over resolved hill tops may be realistic, but may have negative impacts on the performance of gust forecasting using current methods. The transition to probabilistic prediction using ensembles at the regional level means that considerations such as these must also be carried through to the aggregation and post-processing of ensemble members to produce the final forecast. These issues and their implications are discussed.

Observations from the recent COLd‐air Pooling EXperiment (COLPEX) field campaign are used to relate the intensity of cold pools within two small valleys (O(100 m) depth and O(1 km) width) to flow conditions within the airmass passing over the valley. The temperature structure of the cold pools is examined using transects of ground‐based sensors through the valleys and radiosonde releases from within the valley, in order to evaluate simple two‐dimensional concepts of cold‐pool formation due to sheltering. The cold‐pool spatial and temporal structure is found to be consistent between different nights when strong cold pools occurred. Initially a sharp surface inversion occurs similarly at all points within the valley, with isentropes roughly terrain‐parallel. The inversion layer at the bottom of the valley then grows deeper, spreading over the bottom portion of the valley, and cross‐valley isentropes eventually become horizontal. By defining appropriate measures of the relative temperature drop within the cold pool, and non‐dimensional valley depth diagnosed with respect to the speed and stability of the approaching flow, the measurements are shown to be consistent with previous relationships determined for simple two‐dimensional valleys.

The influence of a strong low‐level temperature inversion on the occurrence of lee waves, rotors and hydraulic jumps has been investigated using high resolution numerical model simulations. The aim of the work is to develop tools for forecasting hazardous winds downstream of mountains. Two‐dimensional simulations were conducted for a range of inversion heights and strengths and a fixed hill shape; lee waves, rotors and hydraulic jumps were found to occur. The flow type depends largely on the ratio of mountain height to inversion height and the upstream Froude number. A flow regime diagram based on these two parameters has been constructed and suggests that rotors could be forecast using upstream profiles, which are generally readily available from numerical weather prediction models.The applicability of the regime diagram for two‐dimensional flow to flows over real terrain has been tested using three‐dimensional simulations of flows over East Falkland, South Atlantic, under a range of upstream conditions. The flow type is found to be determined largely by the upstream profiles of wind and temperature, and the maximum height of orography directly upstream, indicating that the flow regime diagram can be used to predict flow type downstream of such terrain. Various three‐dimensional flow phenomena occur, such as flow channelling through gaps, and could be taken into account to improve the information available from the regime diagram. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

The results of a recent field experiment focusing on the near-surface pressure and flow fields downstream of the Pennines in northern England are presented. The main aim of the experiment is the improvement of wind forecasts downstream of orography. Trapped lee waves commonly occur in westerly flow in this region, and during the experiment there were numerous instances of apparent flow separation, indicating the formation of lee-wave rotors. The spatial variability of the near-surface flow in these circumstances is closely linked to the positions of lee-wave crests and troughs aloft, and appears to be a response to pressure gradients induced by the lee waves. For large-amplitude waves, it has been possible to demonstrate a correlation between the fractional change of the flow speed across the measurement array (which if large enough may lead to flow separation) and a normalized pressure-perturbation amplitude. For a group of lee-wave cases during which the cross-mountain flow is strong, a rapid decrease in the Scorer parameter within the lower portion of the troposphere appears to be a prerequisite for rotors to form. However, this does not guarantee their occurrence. For a fixed Scorer-parameter profile, idealized two-dimensional simulations indicate that the lee-wave-induced pressure-perturbation amplitude, and hence the occurrence of rotors, is controlled largely by the strength of the wind upstream close to the mountain-top level. It seems that the combination of a favourable Scorer-parameter profile and sufficiently strong low-level winds is required for rotors to develop. © Crown Copyright 2007. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.