Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

Canada regenerates more than 400 000 ha of forest land annually through planting and seeding operations. Much of the stock for this effort is selected to be climatically suited to the planting site—a match that is often facilitated through the development of seed zones. However, if climate change proceeds as predicted, stock that is well matched under current climate will be growing in sub-optimal conditions within the next 20 to 50 years—in some parts of the country, trees may already be growing outside their optimal climates. To provide a sense of the magnitude of these changes, we present past and predicted future climate trends for Ontario and British Columbia seed zones. For Ontario, over the period 1950 to 2005, minimum temperature of the coldest month has already increased by up to 4.3°C, growing season has lengthened by up to 6 days, and precipitation during the growing season has increased by up to 26%. Changes were more pronounced across British Columbia’s Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) seed zones, with minimum temperature increasing by up to 8°C, a growing season extension of up to 30 days, and growing season precipitation increases of up to 40%. Projections for the end of the current century include: minimum temperature increase of 5°C to 10°C, growing season extension of 31 to 60 days, and growing season precipitation increases of 3% to 42% across the seed zones in both provinces. These changes are certain to have extensive impacts on forest ecosystems. We briefly discuss 3 forest management adaptation strategies intended to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change in Canada. Key words: climate change, seed zones, British Columbia, Ontario, Douglas-fir, seed transfer, assisted migration

Tree provenance trials consist of a variety of seed sources (or provenances) planted at several test sites across the range of a species. The resulting plantations are typically measured periodically to investigate provenance performance in relation to abiotic conditions, particularly climate. These trials are expensive and time consuming to establish, but are an important resource for seed transfer systems, which aim to match planting sites with well-adapted (climatically suitable) seed sources. Provenance trial measurements may be underutilized because the data are scattered across publications, conference proceedings, and university theses. Here we document an effort to collect available provenance trial measurements and associated climate data for seven eastern North American tree species (Pinus strobus, Pinus banksiana, Picea glauca, Picea mariana, Quercus rubra, Larix laricina, Betula alleghaniensis). The resulting datasets included a total of 773 provenances and 62 test sites, with 65 historical climate variables appended to each location. We hope this data will support forest managers in making seed transfer decisions, particularly in an era of rapid climate change.