Maintaining the ecological security of arid Central Asia (CA) is essential for the sustainable development of arid CA. Based on the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data stored on the Google Earth Engine (GEE), this paper investigated the spatiotemporal changes and factors related to ecological environment quality (EEQ) in CA from 2000 to 2020 using the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI). The RSEI values in CA during 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 0.379, 0.376, 0.349, 0.360, and 0.327, respectively; the unchanged/improved/deteriorated areas during 2000–2005, 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2020 were about 83.21/7.66%/9.13%, 77.28/6.68%/16.04%, 79.03/11.99%/8.98%, and 81.29/2.16%/16.55%, respectively, which indicated that the EEQ of CA was poor and presented a trend of gradual deterioration. Consistent with the RSEI trend, Moran’s I index values in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 0.905, 0.893, 0.901, 0.898, and 0.884, respectively, revealing that the spatial distribution of the EEQ was clustered rather than random. The high–high (H-H) areas were mainly located in mountainous areas, and the low–low (L-L) areas were mainly distributed in deserts. Significant regions were mainly located in H-H and L-L, and most reached the significance level of 0.01, indicating that EEQ exhibited strong correlation. The EEQ in CA is affected by both natural and human factors. Among the natural factors, greenness and wetness promoted the EEQ, while heat and dryness reduced the EEQ, and heat had greater effects than the other three indexes. Human factors such as population growth, overgrazing, and hydropower development are important factors affecting the EEQ. This study provides important data for environmental protection and regional planning in arid and semi-arid regions.

Estimating Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) not only helps to provide a comprehensive insight into water resource variability and the hydrological cycle but also for better water resource management. In the current research, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are combined with the available hydrological data to reconstruct a longer record of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) prior to 2003 of the Tarim River Basin (TRB), based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. We found that the TWSA generated by LSTM using soil moisture, evapotranspiration, precipitation, and temperature best matches the GRACE-derived TWSA, with a high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.922 and a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.107 during the period 2003–2012. These results show that the LSTM model is an available and feasible method to generate TWSA. Further, the TWSA reveals a significant fluctuating downward trend (p < 0.001), with an average decline rate of 0.03 mm/month during the period 1982–2016 in the TRB. Moreover, the TWSA amount in the north of the TRB was less than that in the south of the basin. Overall, our findings unveiled that the LSTM model and GRACE data can be combined effectively to analyze the long-term TWSA in large-scale basins with limited hydrological data.

Analyzing the future changes in runoff is crucial for efficient water resources management and planning in arid regions with large river systems. This paper investigates the future runoffs of the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin under different emission scenarios by forcing the hydrological model SWAT-Glacier using six regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Results indicate that compared to the period of 1976~2005, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.22 ± 0.72 °C during 2036~2065 under RCP8.5 scenarios, with a larger increment in the south Tianshan mountains and a lower increment in the north Kunlun Mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase by 3.81 ± 14.72 mm and 20.53 ± 27.65 mm during 2036–2065 and 2066–2095, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The mountainous runoffs of the four headwaters that directly recharge the mainstream of the Tarim River demonstrate an overall increasing trend in the 21st century. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff is projected to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% (amounting to 7.84 × 10⁸ m³ and 9.56 × 10⁸ m³) in 2006–2035. Among them, the runoff of the Kaidu River, which is dominated by rainfall and snowmelt, is projected to present slightly decreasing trends of 3~8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For catchments located in the north Kunlun Mountains (e.g., the Yarkant and Hotan Rivers which are mix-recharged by glacier melt, snowmelt, and rainfall), the runoff will increase significantly, especially in summer due to increased glacier melt and precipitation. Seasonally, the Kaidu River shows a forward shift in peak flow. The summer streamflow in the Yarkant and Hotan rivers is expected to increase significantly, which poses challenges in flood risk management.

Reservoirs play a vital role in agricultural irrigation, food security, and ecological protection in arid and semi–arid areas where water resources are scarce. In the Tarim Basin (TB) in northwestern China, a large number of reservoirs have been built or are being built, resulting in significant evaporation losses. However, information about the distribution, area and evaporation rate of the reservoirs in TB is limited. To contribute, we present an inventory of reservoirs and calculate their monthly surface area and evaporation rate during the study period of 1990–2019, using the TerraClimate dataset, Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, Landtrendr algorithm, Penman method, and Landsat images. The results suggest: (1) The inventory of 167 reservoirs in TB consists of 142 existing reservoirs (built before 1990), 5 new reservoirs (mountain reservoirs, built during 1990–2019), and 20 dried–up reservoirs (plain reservoirs that went extinct during 1990–2019). (2) The reservoir types in TB are mainly plain reservoirs with an altitude of less than 1500 m and an area of less than 10 km², accounting for about 88% of the total number of reservoirs. (3) The surface area of the reservoirs increased at a significant rate (p < 0.05) of 12.45 km²/y from 401 km² in 1990 to 766 km² in 2019. (4) The evaporation rate of the reservoirs increased at a slight trend of 0.004 mm/d/a and varied from 2.57 mm/d in 1990 to 2.39 mm/d in 2019. Lastly, (5) The evaporation losses of reservoirs in TB significantly increased (p < 0.05) from 4.72 × 10⁸ m³ to 4.92 × 10⁸ m³ due to the significant increase in reservoir surface area (p < 0.05) and the slight increase in evaporation rate from 1990 to 2019. This study provides essentials of the reservoir inventory, surface area, and evaporation rate with considerable baseline inferences for TB that may be beneficial for long–term investigations and assist in local water resources decision support and sustainable management in arid regions.