Wood use generates technosphere carbon credits (TCCs) through avoided fossil‐based emissions and net sequestration of carbon into the technosphere (harvested wood products and geological storage). We investigated how large and uncertain TCCs of wood use per carbon harvested are considering the current and alternative ways of using wood, and the effects of the decarbonization of societies over 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐year time horizons. We applied stochastic simulation and scenario analysis using Finnish market structure as a baseline to demonstrate the use of the TCC calculator created. The mean value of TCCs of wood use were between 0.2 and 0.5 t_C/t_C with an uncertainty range from 0.1 to 0.8 t_C/t_C, depending on the scenario. The uncertainties were mainly concerned with the extent to which (1) fossil‐based emissions are avoided through substitution (displacement factors) and (2) fossil‐based raw materials are substituted (substitution rates). Assumptions on the decarbonization of societies reduced TCCs of wood use significantly over time. TCCs of wood use can be increased by directing wood into uses that substitute fossil‐intensive materials and have a long lifetime, such as construction materials, and increasing energy recovery and avoiding emitting carbon at the end of life of harvested wood products by carbon capture and storage. However, they were very likely to be considerably lower than forest carbon debits resulting from harvesting additional wood for substitution under all considered circumstances and under a wide but reasonable range of stochastic parameter values. Thus, the result emphasizes the need to reduce overall consumption of goods to mitigate climate change.

Global trends influence the approaches and mindset for using natural resources and technological capacities. Participatory scenario methods have proven useful in long-term foresight. However, country-level foresight studies often ignore the broader trends affecting international markets and setting frames for economic development. This study envisions which global trends could occur and how the resulting European policies might affect the Finnish forest sector’s development in 2040. We applied a Futures Wheel approach, where stakeholder groups consisting of policy-, economic- and social sustainability-, technology-, and climate sustainability -experts in the field of forestry and interlinking industries created three future scenarios in a workshop: (1) biodiversity and regulated economy, (2) circular economy, and (3) era of social connection. The scenarios assumed growing resource scarcity as a result of climate change, as well as over-consumption and increasing inequality problems globally. Thus, European-level policies focused on the circular economy and resource-use restrictions. Finnish industries should invest in wood-based side stream and waste utilization to increase added value and decrease virgin wood uses to succeed in these scenarios. However, this would require investments in non-wood energy sources to release these secondary wood flows from energy uses.

Wooden construction has the potential to contribute to climate change mitigation, and it is being promoted by the EU and national governments. However, several market barriers to wood-frame multi-storey building (WMSB), have been recognized, including obstacles in national building codes, lack of expertise in wood construction, and material durability concerns among end-users as well as other technical aspects. Given that increased wood construction is a target, understanding consumer perceptions of WMSB is crucial. In this study, consumer attitudes on WMSB were studied through consumer segmentation relying on demographic attributes. Further, the effect of providing fire safety information was explored. To this end, an online survey was deployed in seven European countries, with 7007 responses. The results show that in general, the awareness and attractiveness of WMSB is low amongst European consumers. Out of all respondents, 46% had not heard of WMSB before and only 12% stated that they are interested in the subject and know something about it, showing a clear lack of information and awareness within the general public. Significant differences in the perceived attractiveness of wooden multi-storey construction between consumer segments exist, with younger consumers and urban consumers being more attracted to living in WMSB than older or rural consumers. Fire safety was an important attribute affecting overall attractiveness, yet updated information regarding fire safety and control in WMSBs had a small but statistically significant negative effect on the perceived attractiveness. The results indicate that targeted marketing efforts are needed to inform potential consumers of WMSB and aspects related to fire safety effectively.

BackgroundThe climate impacts of wood-based products can be measured by substitution impacts and changes in product carbon stocks. Cascade use of wood aims to increase resource efficiency and minimize the impact on the environment and climate, but it may lead to changes in the product portfolios of industries. Thus, measuring the overall impact is challenging. This study analyses the impact of wood cascading on the climate under varying market responses. Cascade use here refers to discarded sawnwood product utilisation in panel and wood-based composite production. The study utilises explorative scenarios where Finnish wood-based flows are modelled in an Excel-based material flow model, and discarded sawnwood flows are shifted from energy use to material use in the end-of-life stage. The Reference case represents the situation where discarded wood-based products are only used for energy. The scenarios portray plausible market responses to cascading, with cascade production either leading to additional wood-based panel and composite production, or substituting primary sawnwood products thus leading to lower overall harvest levels. ResultsThe results show that the cascading can result in 1.6%-5.4% more avoided C emissions compared to reference when considering the substitution impacts, the carbon stock changes in wood products, and the avoided carbon loss from roundwood harvest. Besides the market response, the results vary depending on the time-period selected for the estimation of the average annual carbon stock change of wood products and the emission profile of non-wood products. ConclusionsThe results of this study indicate that cascading can contribute to climate change mitigation regardless of the market response, but it depends on the market response whether the reduction potential origins from wood-based products or indirect changes in the harvest levels. There are less avoided C emission gains in the technosystem, if cascading production substitutes primary production and therefore reduces the wood harvest. However, the opposite holds, if the average substitution impacts are significantly reduced in the future due to decarbonization of non-wood sectors. Thus, in the long-term, extending the carbon residence in the technosystem or in the ecosystem may provide a larger climate change mitigation potential than increasing the substitution impacts. Keywords: carbon stock change, cascading, forest industries, greenhouse gas emissions, harvested wood products, substitution, substitution impact