The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an essential role in influencing the global climate, and precipitation is one of its most important water‐cycle components. However, accurately simulating precipitation over the TP is a long‐standing challenge. In this study, a convection‐permitting model (CPM; with 4 km grid spacing) that covers the entire TP was conducted and compared to two mesoscale models (MSMs; with model horizontal resolutions of 13 and 35 km) over the course of a summer. The results showed that the two MSMs have notable wet biases over the TP and can overestimate the summer precipitation by more than 4.0 mm·day⁻¹ in some parts of the Three Rivers Source region. Moreover, both MSMs have more frequent light rainfall; increasing horizontal resolution of the MSMs alone does not reduce the excessive precipitation. Further investigation reveals that the MSMs have a spurious early‐afternoon rainfall peak, which can be linked to a strong dependence on convective available potential energy (CAPE) that dominates the wet biases. Herein, we highlight that the sensitivity of CAPE to surface temperatures may cause the MSMs to have a spurious hydrological response to surface warming. Users of climate projections should be aware of this potential model uncertainty when investigating future hydrological changes over the TP. In comparison, the CPM removes the spurious afternoon rainfall and thus significantly reduces the wet bias simulated by the MSMs. In addition, the CPM also better depicts the precipitation frequency and intensity, and is therefore a promising tool for dynamic downscaling over the TP.

As one of the major producers of extreme precipitation, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have received much attention. Recently, MCSs over several hotpots, including the Sahel and US Great Plains, have been found to intensify under global warming. However, relevant studies on the East Asian rainband, another MCS hotpot, are scarce. Here, by using a novel rain‐cell tracking algorithm on a high spatiotemporal resolution satellite precipitation product, we show that both the frequency and intensity of MCSs over the East Asian rainband have increased by 21.8% and 9.8% respectively over the past two decades (2000–2021). The more frequent and intense MCSs contribute nearly three quarters to the total precipitation increase. The changes in MCSs are caused by more frequent favorable large‐scale water vapor‐rich environments that are likely to increase under global warming. The increased frequency and intensity of MCSs have profound impacts on the hydroclimate of East Asia, including producing extreme events such as severe flooding.

During the period from June 30th to July 6th, 2016, a heavy rainfall event affected the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley in eastern China. The event was characterized by high‐intensity, long‐duration (lasted more than 6 days) precipitation and huge amounts (over 600.0 mm) of rainfall. The rainfall moved eastward from the Sichuan basin to the middle Yangtze River valley during the first 2 days, then Mei‐yu front formed and circulations became more “quasi‐stationary”. During the second‐phase, successive heavy rainfall systems occurred repeatedly over the same areas along the front, leading to widespread and catastrophic flooding. In this study, limited‐area convection‐permitting models (CPMs) covering all of eastern China, and global‐model simulations from the Met Office Unified Model are compared to investigate the added values of CPMs on the veracity of short‐range predictions of the heavy rainfall event. The results show that all the models can successfully simulate the accumulated amount and the evolution of this heavy rainfall event. However, the global model produces too much light rainfall (10.0 mm/day), fails to simulate the small‐scale features of both atmospheric circulations and precipitation, and tends to generate steady heavy rainfall over mountainous region. Afternoon precipitation is also excessively suppressed in global model. By comparison, the CPMs add some value in reproducing the spatial distribution of precipitation, the smaller‐scale disturbances within the rain‐bands, the diurnal cycle of precipitation and also reduce the spurious topographical rainfall, although there is a tendency for heavy rainfall to be too intense in CPMs.

High-resolution meteorological datasets are urgently needed for understanding the hydrological cycle of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where ground-based meteorological stations are sparse. Rapid advances in remote sensing create possibilities to represent spatiotemporal properties of precipitation at a high resolution. In this study, the hourly precipitation characteristics over the TP from two gridded precipitation products, one from global reanalysis (the fifth generation of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate; ERA5) and the other is simulated by Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem (GRIST) global nonhydrostatic model, are compared against satellite-gauge merged precipitation analysis (China Merged Precipitation Analysis; CMPA) from 27 July to 31 August 2014, and a satellite-retrieved precipitation estimate from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) is also evolved. Two aspects are mainly focused on: the spatial distribution and the elevation dependence of hourly precipitation characteristics (including precipitation amount, frequency, intensity, diurnal variations, and frequency–intensity structure). Results indicate that: (1) The precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity of CMPA and IMERG decrease with altitude in the Yarlung Tsangpo river valley (YTRV), but increase at first and then decrease with altitude (except for intensity) in the eastern periphery of TP (EPTP). ERA5 performed well on the variation of precipitation amount with altitude (especially in EPTP), but poorly on the frequency and intensity. GRIST is the antithesis of ERA5, but they all overestimate (underestimate) the frequency (intensity) at all heights; (2) With increasing altitude, the diurnal phase of precipitation of CMPA and IMERG shifted from night to evening in the two sub-regions. IMERG’s diurnal phase is 1 to 3 h earlier than CMPA’s, and the discrepancy decreases (increases) as the altitude increases in YTRV (EPTP). The diurnal phase of precipitation amount and frequency in ERA5 and GRIST is significantly earlier than CMPA, and the frequency peaks around midday except in the basin. GRIST’s simulation of the diurnal variation in intensity at various altitudes is consistent with CMPA; (3) ERA5 and GRIST overestimate (underestimate) the frequency of weak (intense) precipitation, with ERA5’s deviance being the most severe. The deviations increased with altitude. These findings provide intensive metrics to evaluate precipitation in complex terrain and are helpful for deepening the understanding of simulated biases for further improving performance in high-resolution simulation.

Changes in hydrological cycle under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming is highly concerned on the post‐Paris Agreement agenda. In particular, the annual range of precipitation, i.e. the difference between the wet and dry seasons, is important to society and ecosystem. This study examines the changes of precipitation annual range using the Community Earth System Model low‐warming (CESM‐LW) experiment, designed to assess climate change at stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels. To reflect the exact annual range in different regions, wet and dry seasons are defined for each grid‐point and year. Based on this metric, the precipitation annual range would increase by 3.90% (5.27%) under 1.5°C (2.0°C) warming. The additional 0.5°C of warming would increase by 1.37%. The enhancement is seen globally, except in some regions around the subtropics. Under the additional 0.5°C of warming, a significant increase in the annual range occurs over 15% (22%) of the ocean (land) region. The increase is associated with the enhanced precipitation during wet season. Moisture budget analysis shows the enhancement in annual range is dominated by vertical moisture advection, which includes thermodynamic (TH, moisture) and climate dynamic (CD, circulation changes) terms. The TH term plays a dominant role, while the CD term partly offsets the effects of the TH term. The TH term dominates over most regions except for part of the tropical ocean and some of the land region, where the CD term are also remarkable. Thus, the enhancement of the annual range of precipitation is mainly caused by the increase of moisture.