This work focuses on combining observations from field experiments with detailed computer simulations of a physical process to carry out statistical inference. Of particular interest here is determ...

Many of the most exciting questions in astrophysics and cosmology, including the majority of observational probes of dark energy, rely on an understanding of the nonlinear regime of structure formation. In order to fully exploit the information available from this regime and to extract cosmological constraints, accurate theoretical predictions are needed. Currently such predictions can only be obtained from costly, precision numerical simulations. This paper is the third in a series aimed at constructing an accurate calibration of the nonlinear mass power spectrum on Mpc scales for a wide range of currently viable cosmological models, including dark energy. The first two papers addressed the numerical challenges, and the scheme by which an interpolator was built from a carefully chosen set of cosmological models. In this paper we introduce the ``Coyote Universe'' simulation suite which comprises nearly 1,000 N-body simulations at different force and mass resolutions, spanning 38 wCDM cosmologies. This large simulation suite enables us to construct a prediction scheme, or emulator, for the nonlinear matter power spectrum accurate at the percent level out to k~1 h/Mpc. We describe the construction of the emulator, explain the tests performed to ensure its accuracy, and discuss how the central ideas may be extended to a wider range of cosmological models and applications. A power spectrum emulator code is released publicly as part of this paper.

Several cosmological measurements have attained significant levels of maturity and accuracy over the past decade. Continuing this trend, future observations promise measurements of the cosmic mass distribution at an accuracy level of 1% out to spatial scales with $k\sim 10h{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$ and even smaller, entering highly nonlinear regimes of gravitational instability. In order to interpret these observations and extract useful cosmological information from them, such as the equation of state of dark energy, very costly high precision, multiphysics simulations must be performed. We have recently implemented a new statistical framework with the aim of obtaining accurate parameter constraints from combining observations with a limited number of simulations. The key idea is the replacement of the full simulator by a fast emulator with controlled error bounds. In this paper, we provide a detailed description of the methodology and extend the framework to include joint analysis of cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure measurements. Our framework is especially well suited for upcoming large-scale structure probes of dark energy such as baryon acoustic oscillations and, especially, weak lensing, where percent level accuracy on nonlinear scales is needed.